Conference vmszoo::flying

    
    I understand that an FBO on Long Island is selling 10-way
    partnerships.  Maybe at the Gabreski.
    
    I read an interview with the president of Lyco, Phil Boob, about
    Cessna's marketting projections.  To be polite, Lyco doesn't
    believe Cessna'a numbers.  Not a good sign.  If you have $120K
    to spend, you can get some very nice, slightly used, airplanes.
    Even ones with new interiors, paint, and IFR GPS installations.
    Be interesting to see what happens.....
    

    Really!  Its hard to imagine spending $25K on a 172, much less $120K!
    
    Sure, maintenance will be lower than on a "real" $120K plane, but if
    you've got $120K to spend, why not a Glassair or some other four place,
    really fast, really econmoical, really SEXY plane.
    
    I've never figured out what people saw in high wing planes, anyway!  :-)
    
    jeb
    

	re .2

	I agree with Jim. Maybe just by coincidence but in the magazines
	which wrote about the new 172 there where also descriptions of the
	Cirrus SR20 - and this impressed me _much_ more. Finally a cockpit
	looking modern and using new technology, a reasonably fast airframe
	and at an acceptable price. I hope they might come out with another
	version which folds those ugly wheels away and has a bit more panel
	space for Mr.GadgetFreak.

	On the 172R, I would really like to see Cessnas market study. How
	do they believe to sell 1000-2000 planes per year for 120k each ?
	Maybe they just used this number to negotiate better deals with the
	subcontractors ?

	I guess we'll see ... and I'm sure a lot of the kitplane companys
	are waiting at the sidelines and thinking about certification ...

	Wouldn't it be nice to have some _new_ sexy airplanes on the market ?

    I would -love- to understand - from anybody - what the costs are
    asociated with arriving at 120k. Is that market pricing , ie, what the
    market will pay, or is it based on very high actual costs - materials,
    labor, amortized costs of certification, embedded costs of liability,
    etc.
    
    anyone ever seen a pro forma for 'The small plande cessna company'???

    
    I can provide some insight perhaps.  Cessna started by building a
    new factory just to make the "new" piston singles.  Not cheap.
    You or I might have found less expensive existing space.  Not
    to mention that they have to set up tooling, maybe make some
    new tooling, and get an FAA production approval in addition to
    the type certificate.
    
    Cessna chose to change the powerplant.  Probably changed other
    things and opened the door for the FAA to require new Part 23
    certification of the airplane.  When Roy Lopresti tried that
    with the Swift, he wound up projecting engineering costs of
    $13 Million.  Almost half of that was for wing fatigue tests
    and crashworthiness tests that were not required when the
    airplane was oroginally certified.  I would argue that the
    average customer sees very little benefit from subjecting
    a C-172 wing to an airliner style fatigue life test.  But the
    FAA stuff does not have to make sense.
    
    So between a brand new factory and FAR 23 certification stuff,
    I'll guess that Cessna has to recover at least $15 Million
    in expenses before the first airplane gets to a customer.
    Divide those $$ by however many airplanes YOU think Cessna
    will sell......
    
    Now add the actual cost of materials plus labor hours.  A quick
    look at catalogs suggests that a new instrument panel is going
    to cost $20,000, the engine maybe $17,000, etc.  I'll guess
    2,000 labor hours per airplane.
    
    What's wrong with this picture?  They are still thinking like
    its 1980, they are using 1950's technology, and they are using
    1940's assembly techiques.  In 1997.
    
    The good news is that if Cessna makes a go of it, I'll bet
    money that all the new kids on the block, like Cirrus, will
    do even better.  Stay tuned I guess.....
    

    If [New]Piper can sell a fully loaded Archer III (@7 knots faster,
    but 100nm+ less range) for $150k, perhaps Cessna isn't far off.
    K

    
    Well, I don't know anyone who has purchased a new Piper.
    I can maybe recall seeing ONE outside of OSH or LAL.
    Anyone know of any out there owned by real people, as
    opposed to a big flight school?
    
    Interestingly enough, the gentleman from whom I rent my
    hangar bought a brand new Malibu, decided he didn't like
    it, and bought a brand new ($450K) Baron.