Conference 7.286::red_sox

	Based on the schedule that was posted, I expect the Sox to have a 76-86
record. 



Glen

    
    84-80, unless they are out of the playoffs (realistically) by game 145,
    then I'll say 80-84.
    
    Marc
    

did they add 2 games to the season this year?

    
    
    62-100

    
    88-74
    
    Joe

    
    72-90......if Mo stays happy.....If no one is hot behind him and they 
    pitch around him minus another 10 games....
    

    
    
      Just cause I'm a sucker for punishment...
    
      81-81.
    
    
      If they finish better than .500 it'll be a good year.

81-81 and that may be giving them the benefit of the doubt.  This is not a 
contender.  I think the Globe had it right - Duquette has molded the Red Sox 
in his image - boring.  I suspect that a majority of the games I go to this 
year will be more of function of who the Red Sox are playing that who the 
Red Sox put on the field.

Jim

    
    85-77.
    
    Call me an optimist.  The Sox may be boring, but they actually have 
    a fair amount of depth.  I'm thinking that the pitching will at least
    be okay, and not horrible as it was last year (and didn't last year's
    team with all its problems still finish with 84 wins?)
    
    glenn
    

    75-87
    
    But it will be a good 75-87 with a lot of the youngsters getting some
    major league experience that will pay dividends in '98.
    
    They will battle for third place in the division.
    
    Maj

    88-74.
    This team reminds me of the 1974 team. With the veterans they have
    Vaughn, Valentin, Naehring, Mack  they have the making of a decent
    but not great hitting club. Like the 74 club (Rice, Lynn,
    Burleson,Fisk) they have some young talent that is waiting to come up
    or are already there and maybe become top players ( Nomar, Pemberton,
    Cordero, Suppan, Sele) Come August it's possible that Sadler, Nixon
    Pavano and Suppan could end up being pretty nice additions to this
    team. The pitching this year will surprise a lot of people. And like
    Tiant in 74 Brett Saberhagen will come back from injuries and become a
    top pitcher.
    
    The Optimist
    Mike 

    
    I guess I don't understand the predictions of a big drop.

    Losing Greenwell doesn't hurt at all; it probably helps.  Losing Jose
    may hurt but hopefully Jefferson/Stanley/Cordero will be a productive
    DH.  Losing Roger will not cost a lot of wins (mostly because of his
    atrocious luck last year).  The big risk I see is if Jefferson can
    stay near least year's production.  There weren't any other career
    years hitting last year that you need to worry about a big drop off.

    The big problem last year was the pitching.  Clemens was amazingly
    unlucky while Gordon, Sele, and Wakefield were absolutely terrible. 
    Last year the Sox pitching had a lot of career worst years which is not
    likely to repeat itself this year.

    Overall, the offense should be close to the same; defense close to the
    second half defense, and the pitching should be better.  I'd guess they
    win something in the 80s.
                                                    
    Greg
                                 

    very hard to predict, quite a delta depending on the ifs.  As with last
    year the key decision will be second base and with the decision to
    emphasize defense knowing the pitching totally depends on it.  That
    lesson was so stark last year, it's hard to believe it will be ignored.
    Perhaps DD will let Jimy run the club.  I'm not concerned so much at ss
    since Jimy will only let Valentin do it if he's capable.
    
    So Frye 150+ games at second 90 wins.
    
    Cordero > 100 games at second 80 wins.
    
    Garciaperra at second.  ?????????????????  ok 85 wins.

I'll go for 85-77.  The Red Sox have become like the Bruins were for a long
time - they tend to do a bit better than one would expect, but not good
enough to be a contender.  More of the same this year - they may mildly
contend for the wild card but no better than that.

Dick

    
    	With 32 pitchers in camp, 10 of them potential starters. I see the
    I95 shuffle happening between the 4-5 starters. They don't have
    dominate pitcher, but could have 3 15 game winners. A big unknown is who
    will be the #3 and #5 hitters. If no one in the line-up can protect
    Mo Vaughn in the #4 slot, its going to be a long season. Once Spring 
    Training games get started and Dave Justice shows he is healthy. Look for
    a John Valentin for Justice trade.
    
    Ron

	Actually, I bet Mo is 3rd. Mack, Valentin, Mo, Jefferson and then a
crap shoot from there..... of course if we had a real power hitter besides
Vaughn, then we would be much better off.



Glen

    
    	I think I'd put Jefferson 3rd and Vaughn 4th.  Jefferson had a
    	higher average and would tend to get on base more often than
    	Vaughn, and in the 1st inning it might just be enough of a dif-
    	ference to generate a few 1st-inning runs occasionally.
    

	But then who do you put after Vaughn? While Reggie doesn't hit a lot of
homers, IF his average stays high, that will be a good person to have behind Mo
on this homerless power team. 

    
    	Well, I've always believed that you need consistent "table-setters"
    	in the 1-2-3 spots, and then the power in 4-5.
    
    	I don't claim to know how to set up the entire line-up, though.
    

| <<< Note 659.19 by BUSY::SLAB "Good Heavens,Commander,what DID you do?" >>>


| Well, I've always believed that you need consistent "table-setters"
| in the 1-2-3 spots, and then the power in 4-5.

	Shawn, that is the normal way one would do a lineup. The only problem
is there is no one with consistant power on the team. So the next best thing is
to insert someone who could hit for a high average with a bit of power. But at
least this way, Mo is somewhat protected.



Glen

>| Well, I've always believed that you need consistent "table-setters"
>| in the 1-2-3 spots, and then the power in 4-5.

>	Shawn, that is the normal way one would do a lineup. The only problem

I disagree.  It is quite typical to have the best or second best power
hitter on a team in the #3 spot.

Dick

    
    	I think we all agree that the 3, 4, and 5 hitters are up in air
    right now. The big key is that SOMEONE has to protect Mo in the lineup.
    If not he will get a lot of walks.
    
    Ron

    >If not he will get a lot of walks.
    
    ....or, he'll start swinging at bad balls!

I thought Mo led the league in stikeouts recently.  Without a *serious* 
hitter behind him, I am expecting that he will get fewer good pitches 
and rather than take the walks Mo will swing at the bad pitches.

Jim

    I remember seeing something in the Globe recently.  Mo was far more
    productive last year with Reggie Jefferson hitting behind him than with
    Jose.
    
    					Steve

Re: last couple

Which argues for Mo batting 3rd.  My perfect lineup has:

batting	1st	fastest guy out of top 3 OBP
	2nd	1st or 2nd best OBP, speed desirable, good bunter
	3rd	highest BA of players with 15-20+ homeruns
	4th	highest HR hitter
	5th	next highest BA and/or HR

Mo makes sense at 3 or 4.  But if batting 4th is going to cost him
seriously in the BA department, he's better off 3rd.  On the other hand,
if he bats 3rd and his BA dips anyway (say to .260) then I'd move him to
4th or 5th.

Dick

    What would be wrong with O'leary hitting 3rd, Mo 4th, and
    Jefferson 5th? Troy showed last year that he can hit, so 
    why not give him a chance at the #3 spot. Of course there's
    no reason also to believe why Val can't hit 3rd either.
    
     2
    b

I predict that the Red Sox will win the first spring training game they 
play (tonight against BC).  Losing this game would be a very bad sign.

Jim

    >    What would be wrong with O'leary hitting 3rd, Mo 4th, and
    >    Jefferson 5th?
    
    
    That would be 3 lefties in a row.  A late inning left-handed 
    relief pitcher and you're stuck.  You can't pinch hit for Mo.
    

    Oh yeah.....well I'm lefty so that type of thought process
    doesn't enter my frame of reference. :-)
    Yeah that's a good point, that I overlooked...well then my
    second premise of having Valentin hit 3rd would break up the
    3 lefties in a row.
    
     2
    b

    
    >That would be 3 lefties in a row.  A late inning left-handed
    >relief pitcher and you're stuck.  You can't pinch hit for Mo.
    
    If you believe in conventional wisdom (as an aside, I don't) this is
    still not a problem because you have this concept known as a pitch
    hitter.
    
    Marc
    

	Not to mention that Jefferson would be replaced with Stanley.....

    I think .31 was trying to say "pinch hitter" not "pitch hitter"!

    
    	I was going to mention the 3 lefties in a row, but couldn't
    remember if O'Leary or Jefferson are switch hitters. For some reason
    I thought that Troy O'Leary was?
    
    Ron

    Tinsley is a switch hitter.  I often
    confused the two of them (O'Leary and 
    Tinsley) in the beginning
    
    Where did Tinsley end up?  Seattle? or
    Oakland?

    
    My prediction...78-84, slightly below .500 in mirroring the
    record of their starting pitching.
    
    Lou
    
    P.S.  See you at the home opener!
    

	O'Leary is a lefty.

RE                     <<< Note 659.35 by HANNAH::MILANESE >>>

>    Where did Tinsley end up?  Seattle? or
>    Oakland?

  Tinsley is currently listed on Seattle's 40 man roster.

  George

Tinsley is not that bad a backup for Junior.

Jim

	Red Sox are 5-0 in preseason play.... they are going to win it all this
year! :-)

    109-53
    anything less than a WS win is a choke.

re -1


            S.T.F.U.


      .650 Season, at least the Celts & Bruins will be done soon.


                            
                       Lil Ed

    
    Lil Ed <--- nuff said
    

  ... That's "Nuf Ced".

  George