| Title: | Digital Investing |
| Moderator: | a-61.tunnel.crl.dec.com::needle |
| Created: | Mon Nov 06 1995 |
| Last Modified: | Wed Jun 04 1997 |
| Last Successful Update: | Fri Jun 06 1997 |
| Number of topics: | 476 |
| Total number of notes: | 10632 |
With 30% of quarter gone, it's time to estimate the Q3FY97 results.
My guess: Net Revenue = $3.2B (Q3FY96 = $3.6B) Down 11%
Net Profit = $25M (Q3FY96 = $124M) Down 75%
Business seems slower than last Q3, and Q2 just completed. With
slightly less revenue than Q2, profit should be slightly less.
If there were any financial arrangements to insure a profit in Q2
that might impact Q3, we might even show a loss in Q3.
Bob Palmer forecasted over $1.00 per share net for the fiscal year.
If Q3 turns out as I guessed, we will have to have one heck of a
Q4 to come close to $1.00 EPS for the year, given our 1st 6 months
performance.
Mark
| T.R | Title | User | Personal Name | Date | Lines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 468.1 | What the street expects is... | BEGIN::ROTITHOR | Tue Jan 28 1997 09:55 | 22 | |
The Zacks average estimates are:
Research Analysts' Earnings Estimates and
Actuals
Consensus estimate for current fiscal year: $ 0.94 per
share
Consensus estimate for next fiscal year: $ 2.78 per share
Consensus estimate for current quarter: $ 0.33 per share
Last quarter's actual earnings :$ 0.15 per share
Last quarter's EPS Surprise: 99 %
I guess these figures keep changing all th time.
.33c EPS would translate to about 45M in net profit. Most investors beleive that
DEC is well positioned with the current prices and products to take off.
If the results are anywhere near those in .0 (about .15 eps), investors would
very easily loose confidence in DEC stock and would dump it.
Investors have a high expectation from the company in the near future and the
next few Quarters seem critical to say the least.
| |||||
| 468.2 | Inquiring minds want to know ... | RTOEU::KPLUSZYNSKI | Arrived... | Tue Jan 28 1997 10:11 | 5 |
Do you have a public source for these numbers ?
An internet URL perhaps ?
Thanks,
Klaus
| |||||
| 468.3 | BEGIN::ROTITHOR | Tue Jan 28 1997 10:42 | 6 | ||
In .2, if you are asking for a public source for the estimates in .1, yes, there is and it is as follows: http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep Just enter DEC symbol; if you were referring to .0 I don't know. | |||||
| 468.4 | my guess | HYDRA::PASHAPOUR | Disk space, the final frontier | Tue Jan 28 1997 10:55 | 6 |
Rev. $3.62B
Net. $98M
Just a quess.
Amin
| |||||
| 468.5 | CPDEV::DOUGLAS | unintentionally left blank | Tue Jan 28 1997 13:09 | 7 | |
It looks like the web page is actually
http://www.ultra.zacks.com/docs/show.html
\paul
| |||||
| 468.6 | Worked fine for me.... | AWECIM::SEGAL | Tue Jan 28 1997 17:38 | 5 | |
Cool service. I reached it at the following URL, just a few minutes ago: http://www.ultra.zacks.com/cgi-bin/ShowFreeCompRep -Meir | |||||
| 468.7 | LJSRV2::JC | No friends on powder days | Fri Mar 07 1997 09:57 | 6 | |
Q3: revenues: 2.95 B EPS: $.04 | |||||
| 468.8 | SMURF::PSH | Per Hamnqvist, UNIX/ATM | Fri Mar 07 1997 10:05 | 4 | |
Q3: Revenue: $3.55B EPS: $0.46 | |||||
| 468.9 | MAIL1::KAPLAN | Fri Mar 07 1997 10:12 | 4 | ||
Q3 :
REVENUE $3.25B
EPS: $0.24
| |||||
| 468.10 | DECC::OUELLETTE | crunch | Fri Mar 07 1997 11:19 | 2 | |
revenue $3.5B eps $0.25 | |||||
| 468.11 | WHEN IN DOUBT SHIP IT OUT | WMOIS::ROUGIER | Sat Mar 08 1997 13:49 | 2 | |
revenue: $3.38B
eps: $0.39
| |||||
| 468.12 | 26115::CONNELLY | Are you paranoid ENOUGH? | Thu Mar 13 1997 01:09 | 4 | |
revenue: $2.99B
eps: $0.13
| |||||
| 468.13 | Announcement Date? | ACISS2::MARES | you get what you settle for | Tue Apr 01 1997 10:57 | 5 |
Anybody know what the target announcement date is for Q3 financial
results???
Randy
| |||||
| 468.14 | Q3 Results due on April 17 | NQOS01::dhcp205.syo.dec.com::SOJDA | Wed Apr 02 1997 11:04 | 2 | |
According to the notes in the recent organizational change memo, Q3 results will be released on April 17. | |||||
| 468.15 | BW: $37m on $3.3b | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Mon Apr 07 1997 11:49 | 15 | |
Another Reorg at DIGITAL
Business Week, April 14th, 1997
The return to healthy growth and robust profits is still not happening
at Digital Equipment Corporation. Analysts now say earnings for the
quarter just ended should be just $37 million, a 70% drop from a year
ago, signaling Digital's third lackluster quarter in a row. Revenue
should come in around $3.3 billion, down 9% from a year ago. The
company is trying yet another reorganization. Bruce Claflin will now
head up a streamlined sales and marketing organization. But meanwhile,
sales of Digital's Alpha computers are limping along at single-digit
growth rates, despite discounts that are hurting profits, distibutors
say.
| |||||
| 468.16 | ACISS1::BATTIS | Ferzie fan | Tue Apr 15 1997 11:58 | 3 | |
revenue: 3.45 billion
EPS: $39 million
| |||||
| 468.17 | WMOIS::ROUGIER | Tue Apr 15 1997 12:35 | 2 | ||
REVENUE: 3.27
PROFIT: - $3 MIL
| |||||
| 468.18 | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Tue Apr 15 1997 15:03 | 5 | ||
Revenue: $2.8 billion
Profit: -$10 million
Lump all the bad news here to set up a very nice Q4.
.02 Kratz
| |||||
| 468.19 | ACISS2::MARES | you get what you settle for | Tue Apr 15 1997 15:54 | 9 | |
Revenue: $3 B
Profit: $10 M
Just my SWAG,
Randy
| |||||
| 468.20 | so much for the stock | MAASUP::CROSBYM | Wed Apr 16 1997 12:05 | 2 | |
Revenue: $2.5 b
Profit: $22 m
| |||||
| 468.21 | Q3 results -- $51 million, or 27 cents/share | LGP30::FLEISCHER | without vision the people perish (DTN 381-0426 ZKO1-1) | Thu Apr 17 1997 07:39 | 232 |
DIGITAL reports Q3 net income of $51 million
DIGITAL today reported net income of $51 million, or 27 cents per
common share, for the third quarter which ended March 29, 1997,
compared with net income of $124 million, or 74 cents per common share,
for the same period last year.
Total operating revenue for the quarter was $3.31 billion,
compared to $3.62 billion reported for the comparable quarter a year
ago.
"I am pleased we showed good earnings improvement over our second
quarter," said DIGITAL Chairman Robert B. Palmer. "Although revenue was
not where we wanted it to be, it was within our expectations with
progress in key strategic areas. I am particularly encouraged by the
growth in Windows NT-based solutions and Internet products and
services. I am confident that we will return to year-over-year revenue
growth over the next few quarters."
Progress made in strategic areas
Product revenue in the quarter was $1.84 billion compared to
$2.06 billion in the third quarter of the previous year. Service
revenue was $1.48 billion compared with $1.57 billion reported in the
same period last year.
Palmer said DIGITAL is making progress in a number of strategic
areas.
"Our Internet business, which includes servers, networking
products, software and services, achieved good growth during the
quarter with total revenue now more than $1 billion on an annual
basis," Palmer said. "We are achieving substantial success in sales to
Internet service providers where more than 200 ISPs in 37 countries
have turned to DIGITAL for Alpha and Intel servers, storage systems and
networking products."
Palmer said the company also is winning business with Microsoft
Exchange on Windows NT, capturing approximately 900,000 Exchange seats
worldwide since the beginning of the fiscal year. More than 50 percent
of the wins represent new business for DIGITAL, including installations
at British Petroleum and Lehman Brothers.
DIGITAL's network product business, Palmer said, introduced a new
family of high-performance switches that was well-received by the
marketplace and generated strong demand.
The company's Services Division, Palmer said, met both its
near-term objectives for revenue and gross margin. The division
announced a $70 million services contract with Canada's TransAlta
Corp. early in the quarter and recently won a $13.5 million contract
with Perkin Elmer, a leading manufacturer of life-science systems and
analytical instruments, to help design, manage and support a worldwide
SAP infrastructure.
New products rolled out in Q3
During the quarter, DIGITAL introduced a number of important new
products.
The company announced additions and enhancements to its 64-bit
DIGITAL AlphaServer and personal workstation product lines. The new
AlphaServer 800 and enhanced AlphaServer 1000A systems provide
high-availability, computer-clustering solutions for UNIX and Windows
NT and new Windows NT intranet search capabilities. The competitively
priced entry-level servers target the small business market.
Two new Windows NT personal workstations were announced based on
the Alpha microprocessor which deliver breakthrough Windows NT
workstation performance and the world's fastest Windows NT 3D graphics
solutions.
Additionally, the company unveiled three new models in its
value-priced HiNote VP 500 mobile client series which include models
with Windows NT Workstation 4.0 pre-loaded and pre-configured with
power management and plug-and-play features.
DIGITAL continued to strengthen Alpha's position as the
industry's leading high performance microprocessor. The company
unveiled the low cost Alpha 21164PC microprocessor, jointly designed
with Mitsubishi Electric, that delivers Alpha power at PC prices making
it very attractive to the volume Windows NT market.
In addition, DIGITAL announced a network appliance reference
design with Network Computer Inc., a subsidiary of Oracle Corp., based
on DIGITAL's low power/high performance StrongARM microprocessor. The
reference design is aimed at creating the industry standard for the
most powerful, low-cost network computing platform.
Early interest in this offering is very encouraging, with Funai
Electric Company and Aranex Inc. already committed to producing network
computing devices based on the design.
Additionally, DIGITAL announced a memo of understanding with
China Aerospace Corporation for a joint venture in the People's
Republic of China to explore development, manufacture and distribution
of network computers based on this reference design.
Expense control
Gross margin for the quarter was 33.4 percent, compared with 32.9
percent in the previous quarter and 34.6 percent for the comparable
period a year ago.
Product gross margin was 35.3 percent, compared with 37.1 percent
in the third quarter of 1996. Service gross margin was 31 percent
compared with 31.3 percent in the third quarter of fiscal 1996.
"Over the past three years we've succeeded in improving product
gross margin by 10 points while at the same time, stabilizing service
gross margin," said DIGITAL Chief Financial Officer Vincent J.
Mullarkey.
Total operating expenses were $1.06 billion compared to $1.13
billion reported in the same period last year.
"Overall operating expenses for the quarter reflected good
management control and the impact of restructuring, resulting in a 7
percent reduction in operating expenses from the same period last
year," Mullarkey said.
"Our third quarter profits improved considerably over the second
quarter, despite the significant negative impact of the strengthening
U.S. dollar," Mullarkey continued. "Management actions were taken
across the company during the quarter to partly mitigate the currency
impact."
The company ended the quarter with $2.48 billion in cash and
short term investments, up approximately $200 million from the second
quarter.
"The company's balance sheet continues to strengthen in all
areas," Mullarkey said. "Improvements in inventory and accounts
receivable contributed to the fifth consecutive quarter of positive
cash flow from operations. During the quarter, the company repurchased
4.5 million shares of common stock at a cost of approximately $160
million. The company's cash and short term investments position has
improved more than $700 million from a year ago."
The corporation completed the quarter with approximately 55,100
employees -- a net reduction of 5,800 positions from a year ago.
Statements contained in this press release which are not historic
facts are forward-looking statements as that term is defined in the
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All forward-looking
statements are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause
actual results to differ from those projected. Such risks and
uncertainties are discussed more fully in the company's latest
quarterly report on Form 10-Q and the company's other filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Consolidated Statements of Operations (Unaudited)
(in thousands except per share data)
Three-month Period Ended
March 29, 1997 March 30, 1996
Product sales...................$ 1,836,516 $ 2,055,710
Service revenues................. 1,477,794 1,565,316
Total operating revenues......... 3,314,310 3,621,026
Cost of product sales............ 1,188,578 1,294,032
Service expense.................. 1,019,290 1,074,650
Research and engineering
expenses........................ 256,476 275,703
Selling, general and
administrative expenses......... 798,714 858,203
Operating income................. 51,252 118,438
Other (income)/expense, net (1).. (10,848) (19,272)
Income before income taxes....... 62,100 137,710
Provision for income taxes....... 11,134 13,637
Net income....................... 50,966 124,073
Dividend on preferred stock...... 8,875 8,875
Net income applicable
to common stock................$ 42,091 $ 115,198
Net income applicable
per common share (2)...........$ 0.27 $ 0.74
Weighted average common
shares outstanding.............. 155,666 156,594
Nine-Month Period Ended
March 29, 1997 March 30, 1996
Product sales...................$ 5,202,959 $ 6,221,248
Service revenues................. 4,380,739 4,622,275
Total operating revenues......... 9,583,698 10,843,523
Cost of product sales............ 3,445,203 4,133,992
Service expense.................. 3,016,261 3,115,310
Research and engineering expenses 763,961 795,483
Selling, general and
administrative expenses......... 2,348,297 2,464,372
Operating income................. 9,976 334,366
Other (income)/expense, net (1).. (27,465) (30,416)
Income before income taxes....... 37,441 364,782
Provision for income taxes....... 20,475 43,756
Net income....................... 16,966 321,026
Dividends on preferred stock..... 26,625 26,625
Net income/(loss) applicable
to common stock................$ (9,659) $ 294,401
Net income/(loss) applicable
per common share (2)...........$ (0.06) $ 1.91
Weighted average common
shares outstanding.............. 154,965 154,209
Note (1): In the third quarter of fiscal 1997, Other (income)/expense,
net includes approximately $30 million of interest income, $21 million
in interest expense and $2 million in net gain on divestments. In the
third quarter of fiscal 1996, Other (income)/expense, net includes
approximately $19 million in interest income, $26 million in interest
expense and there were $26 million in net gains on divestments. In the
first nine months of fiscal 1997, Other (income)/expense, net includes
approximately $82 million in interest income, $64 million in interest
expense and $9 million in net gains on divestments. In the first nine
months of fiscal 1996 Other (income)/expense, net includes
approximately $57 million in interest income and $75 million in
interest expense and $48 million in net gains on divestments.
Note (2): Per common share amounts are calculated based on the
weighted average number of common shares and common share equivalents
outstanding during periods of net income, after deducting applicable
preferred stock dividends. Per share amounts are calculated based only
on the weighted average number of shares outstanding during periods of
net loss, after deducting applicable preferred stock dividends.
Selected Balance Sheet Data (Unaudited) - Q3 FY97
(in thousands except per share and employee data)
March 29, 1997
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments.......$ 2,481,708
Accounts receivable, net of allowances................... 2,886,164
Inventories.............................................. 1,471,390
Prepaid expenses, deferred income taxes and other
current assets.......................................... 324,510
Total current assets..................................... 7,163,772
Property, plant and equipment, net....................... 2,114,074
Other assets............................................. 334,667
Total assets............................................. 9,612,513
Bank loans and current portion of long-term debt (3)..... 264,043
Accounts payable......................................... 810,056
Accrued restructuring costs.............................. 443,230
Total current liabilities................................ 4,187,413
Long-term debt (3)....................................... 749,320
Postretirement and other postemployment benefits......... 1,179,420
Total liabilities........................................ 6,116,153
Stockholders' equity....................................$ 3,496,360
Book value per common share.............................$ 20.26
Non-U.S. revenues...................................QTR $ 2,274,037
69%
YTD $ 6,473,907
68%
Employee population (approximately)..................... 55,100
Note (3): In the second quarter of fiscal 1997, $250 million was
reclassed from long-term debt to current portion of long term debt to
recognize that the five-year bond is due in November of 1997.
| |||||
| 468.22 | SHRCTR::peterj.shr.dec.com::PJohnson | Nothing unreal exists. | Thu Apr 17 1997 08:17 | 4 | |
> revenue: 3.45 billion > EPS: $39 million Whoa! I'll take that EPS anyday! | |||||
| 468.23 | ACISS1::BATTIS | Ferzie fan | Thu Apr 17 1997 08:49 | 4 | |
<--------- hey, we need to catch Intel. actually, that should say
net income. hey, i was only $12 million off. Here's hoping Q4 has
earnings of 79-82 cents a share.
| |||||
| 468.24 | My guess it was BAD so no mention | CSCMA::BALICH | Thu Apr 17 1997 09:49 | 6 | |
I got a question:
WHY isn't DEC talking about ALPHA growth this quarter ???
No mention on how ALPHA did ... WHY ?
| |||||
| 468.25 | GVPROD::MSTEINER | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:06 | 6 | ||
Re .-1:
Wasn't it the same last quarter ? And it was only at an analyst conference
that Palmer said Alpha growth was 1% !
Michel.
| |||||
| 468.26 | always go contrary to this file... | GAAS::BRAUCHER | And nothing else matters | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:06 | 5 |
I also have a question : how come the members of this conference are such atrocious predicters ? I could do better with darts. bb | |||||
| 468.27 | CTHU22::M_MORIN | Mario Morin, Hull CSC - Canada | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:14 | 10 | |
In order to meet Bob Palmer's prediction that for FY97 the company would make $1.00/share, I calculate that we need to show a profit of $163M for Q4. We're currently -$0.06/share ($9.6M loss)for the 9 months of FY97. This calculation is based on 154,965,000 shares outstanding. I figured we need to make $1.06/share in Q4. /Mario | |||||
| 468.28 | they know... | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:28 | 3 | |
The fact that they didn't comment on Alpha means that
Alpha probably wasn't very good,"
-John Jones, Soloman Brothers
| |||||
| 468.29 | Maybe a lesson learned | SMURF::PSH | Per Hamnqvist, UNIX/ATM | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:33 | 13 |
| WHY isn't DEC talking about ALPHA growth this quarter ??? Unless those numbers were *excellent* why set ourselves up for cheap shots from our competition? Just because they are not excellent does not mean they are bad. I imagine Alpha did not do too well, but I doubt the entire blame can be laid on it as a poor hardware platform. Much of it can probably be attributed to internal organizational turmoil. So if we tell the competition that the numbers are not too exciting, they will turn around and tell their customers that this is proof that the industry is not embracing the Alpha when in fact part of the problem is that the industry may be trying but Digital has been so darn difficult to do business with. >Per | |||||
| 468.30 | I thought book value was Equity/shares | MKOTS3::BREEN | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:35 | 5 | |
If total equity is 3.5 bil and we have 155 million common shares why
isn't book value $22 vs 20 or taking the 20.26 book value * 155k shares
and getting 3.1 billion wheres the other 400 million dollars?
Are some assets not included in the book value computation?
| |||||
| 468.31 | it could certainly be worse... | GAAS::BRAUCHER | And nothing else matters | Thu Apr 17 1997 10:55 | 5 |
In the early going, the market likes this quarterly. We're up nearly 10% on a stagnant NYSE. bb | |||||
| 468.32 | DECCXL::OUELLETTE | temerity time | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:42 | 15 | |
Two close guesses.
I guess I have my cynicism level fairly well adjusted.
MAIL1::KAPLAN
REVENUE $3.25B
EPS: $0.24
DECC::OUELLETTE
revenue $3.5B
eps $0.25
Actual
revenue $3.31B
eps .27
| |||||
| 468.33 | DEC bullish in DEC stock ??? | CSCMA::BALICH | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:47 | 9 | |
Check this out .... haven't seen the detailed story yet ... but saw
this at 11:10 on DBC headlines ...
11:10 DIGITAL EXPECTS TO REPURCHASE ABOUT 4 MILLION SHARES IN 4TH QUARTER
I see this a very bullish ... thats alot of stock!
| |||||
| 468.34 | ACISS2::LENNIG | Dave (N8JCX), MIG, @CYO | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:49 | 22 | |
Employee population, culled from the quarterly reports
total Y/Y Q/Q
95Q4 61700 16000
96Q1 61500 12300 200
96Q2 61100 4500 400
96Q3 60900 2200 200
96Q4 59100 2600 1800
97Q1 57000 4500 2100
97Q2 55900 5200 1100
97Q3 55100 5800 800
97Q4 ????? ???? ????
Any guesses? Comments? Also, from Q3FY97
>>Accrued restructuring costs.............................. 443,230
Is this how much of the Q4FY96 $492M restructuring charge is left,
or is it how much has been spent? (Doesn't this have to be used up
by the end of this FY?)
Dave
| |||||
| 468.35 | ACISS2::LENNIG | Dave (N8JCX), MIG, @CYO | Thu Apr 17 1997 11:58 | 10 | |
re: .33
>>DIGITAL EXPECTS TO REPURCHASE ABOUT 4 MILLION SHARES IN 4TH QUARTER
From Q4FY96: "As a result, Digital has announced a stock repurchase
program for up to 10 million common shares." and from Q3FY97: "During
the quarter, the company repurchased 4.5 million shares of common
stock at a cost of approximately $160 million." 10M - 4.5M = 5.5M
Dave
| |||||
| 468.36 | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 13:54 | 8 | ||
Alpha Systems revenue was down 2%, units up 6%, vs. year ago
according to some "Talking points" message that accompanied
the results. Keep in mind that probably didn't include
system boards sold by Digital Semi (which probably did some
cannabilization of the SBU systems).
K
| |||||
| 468.37 | that's expected, till EV6 or P7... | GAAS::BRAUCHER | And nothing else matters | Thu Apr 17 1997 14:11 | 7 |
so what else is new ? EV5 & Pentium Pro, our two architectures, are getting long of tooth, for the high end. We need big stuff, soon. You can't stand still for a year in the server biz. bb | |||||
| 468.38 | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 14:37 | 4 | ||
Not to mention that a lot of talk about $2.5k Alphas six
months from now probably didn't do much to help the sales
of the current $25k AlphaStations.
K
| |||||
| 468.39 | PC Week | PCBUOA::KRATZ | Thu Apr 17 1997 16:02 | 57 | |
PC Week, midday edition 4/17/97 Alpha Sales Down At Digital Digital Equipment Corp.'s earnings were better than expected, but that isn't saying much. Revenues at the Maynard, Mass., computer company were $3.3 billion, down from $3.6 billion in the year-ago quarter. Net income for the quarter was $51 million, down from $124 million last year. CEO Robert Palmer said that while he was pleased the company had boosted earnings from the second quarter, he was unhappy with the current revenue levels. "We should be growing at something closer to industry leader's rates for similar products and services," he said. Sales of Digital's flagship Alpha unit suffered during the quarter, with revenues falling 9 percent from a year ago. In particular, Alpha sales into the Unix market suffered considerably. "In the Unix side of the product family we're experiencing -- particularly in high-end sales -- a longer sales cycle this year than last year," said Vin Mullarkey, Digital's chief financial officer. Mullarkey said that Alpha sales also may be dampened because the transition from VMS/VAX is slowing. Price cuts also had an impact on Alpha revenue. In March, the company announced a series of low-cost Alpha chips, aiming to make a name for the chip on the desktop NT market. "We saw an increase in the number of units, but that hasn't offset the decrease in revenue due to price reductions," Palmer said. "Last year there was pent-up demand for performance from our existing [VMS/VAX] installed base, and that conversion has taken place. Growth today is in new business and applications." Palmer and Mullarkey said the Alpha revenue loss was expected, and added that unit shipments had risen 6 percent from the second quarter. Palmer said he was pleased with sales in the Internet business, which encompass servers networking products and software, adding that he would like the company to grab 20 percent of the worldwide market in that area by fiscal 1998. Annually, that business brings in about $1 billion to Digital. Looking ahead, Mullarkey said the fourth quarter should see a revenue increase in the mid- to high-single digits. Currency issues could continue to affect Digital's revenues in the next quarter, Mullarkey said today. The company's revenues were down about $60 million due to currency issues resulting from a strong dollar. The problems could continue, at similar levels, into Digital's fourth quarter, he said. | |||||
| 468.40 | Ramblin' On | NCMAIL::YANUSC | Fri Apr 18 1997 08:26 | 41 | |
A few thoughts around the earnings announcement, the erosion of Alpha
sales, and buying back stock:
1. We exceeded analysts expectations, albeit the revised ones from the
last 6-8 week period. Most expected profits of $25M, some expected
$10M, and towards the end a few started hinting at a loss. Under those
conditions our profits were well received, which is why our relatively
small profits caused the stock to move higher, while Sun's profits,
while large in relation to ours, did not necessarily exceed
expectations. Hence, their stock did nothing on their news.
Personally I would prefer to be at their profit levels, and the heck
with what happened to their stock in a short time period.
2. Regarding lowered Alpha sales - No one, I repeat no one, has as much
vested interest in the success of Alpha than the employees of this
company. In particular that includes the direct sales and support
people in the field, whose livelihood depends upon this success. No
one has that same desire, not our resellers who carry umpteen vendors
lines in addition to Digital's, and not the OEMs we think are pushing
Alpha products. Take away a goodly number of your direct selling
force, and watch as attrition takes many more, and it does not take a
rocket scientist to understand why Alpha sales are down. Unless this
trend is reversed, you can expect a continued erosion of Alpha sales,
on a steady quarter by quarter basis. I'm not sure when the powers to
be will wake up to that fact, but I fear time is running short.
3. Stock buybacks can be effective under the right conditions.
Normally I feel that this is best accomplished when one is generating
lots of excess cash, not when one is hanging on by their fingernails.
The GEs of the world come to mind as examples of companies who are
expanding at a rapid clip, generating profits, and therefore using some
of the excess proceeds to redeem shares. But a high-tech company like
Digital can send a message that we do not necessarily know where to
invest for growth by such an action, particularly during these times.
It also can give a downright negative connotation (defensive move on
management's part to shield the company from a hostile bid.) I suppose
we are damned if we do, damned if we don't in this scenario, but
personally I would like to see the $ used for purposes of growing the
business.
Chuck
| |||||
| 468.41 | Yes but | MKTCRV::MANNERINGS | Fri Apr 18 1997 08:54 | 10 | |
>Take away a goodly number of your direct selling
>force, and watch as attrition takes many more, and it does not take
>a rocket scientist to understand why Alpha sales are down.
Yes, I think that is it too. The ridiculous thing is that the company
stategists were taken by suprise at this. But it is still disaapointing
that unix high-end is weak. It would suggest that VLM is not taking off
as expected. Is that the case ?
..Kevin..
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| 468.42 | AMCFAC::RABAHY | dtn 471-5160, outside 1-810-347-5160 | Fri Apr 18 1997 09:22 | 1 | |
Perhaps Alpha is in the chasm? | |||||
| 468.43 | axel.zko.dec.com::FOLEY | http://axel.zko.dec.com | Fri Apr 18 1997 09:27 | 11 | |
RE: .41 Perhaps it is Unix' slowing growth in general. I personally think we are caught in the middle of a slowdown on the Unix/VMS side and an upswing on the Windows NT side, where the future growth is. I'd rather not debate the merits of this. It's reality at the moment. mike | |||||
| 468.44 | SUN hasn't stopped growing.... | TROOA::MSCHNEIDER | [email protected] | Fri Apr 18 1997 10:41 | 6 |
Re. -1
You mean our slowing DUNIX growth.... you might have noticed that the
growth of UNIX overall far exceed the growth of DUNIX. Gartner report
not likely to have helped and the fact that our overall performance
lead has shrunk or been eliminated in many segments.
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| 468.45 | RE: .43 | gemevn.zko.dec.com::GLOSSOP | Only the paranoid survive | Fri Apr 18 1997 10:42 | 9 |
The Sun piece in the WSJ on their results suggested their high-end sales were strong, if I remember correctly (don't have it handy.) My reading is this appears to be more self-inflicted damage from cost-driven approach rather than a growth-driven approach, given how the competitors appear to be doing. (We seem to have realized in some places that prices were way out of line, but we still don't appear to have come to terms with how much volume is required to sustain profitability and price competitiveness at the same time.) | |||||
| 468.46 | ref to .40 | DECC::ROTITHOR | Fri Apr 18 1997 11:38 | 14 | |
>>But a high-tech company like >>Digital can send a message that we do not necessarily know where to >>invest for growth by such an action, particularly during these times. That is true and the interpretation will depend on one's outlook. Another way to look at the stock buyback is that Digital is confident about its future plans and growth and expects that the stock will do very well in future Quarters and sees a low share price (possibly bootomed out) as an opportunity to buy back the stock. This can also instill some temporary confidence in share holders that the company cares about them in conditions where the price has been consistently beaten down so that they have something to look forward in the short term. It is important to have share holders holding the stock until we get some breathing time with large volume production of low cost Alpha NT platforms. | |||||
| 468.47 | SUBSYS::BROWN | SCSI and DSSI advice given cheerfully | Fri Apr 18 1997 13:07 | 13 | |
It appears that we're not good at managing our cash.
1. We bought back stock at about $36/share. ($160m / 4.5m = $35.something)
It's hard to remember a time last quarter when the stock was that high.
Perhaps this quarter we should dollar-cost average, by buying shares
every week. Strategically-timed purchases have backfired.
2. Accounts Receivable exceeds 80 days's sales.
Accounts Payable is only a third of that.
3. Inventory is well over 90 days (compared to cost of sales).
The only thing we did well was take $40m. from the restructuring charge
to reduce SG&A. Otherwise, the results would have been grounds for mutiny.
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| 468.48 | Ratios have two sides | SUBSYS::JAMES | Fri Apr 18 1997 13:35 | 13 | |
Maybe Digital's low stock price is a strategy to get more shares for our
buy-back dollar! :*(
I've heard that a good portion of Palmers compensation is tied to
hitting an Earnings Per Share target. If we can't grow earnings, we
can reduce outstanding shares. The person who told me this did
not say what the target is.
The same strategy was used to improve Sales per Employee. Sales are
down. Population is down more. Sales per Employee is up.
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| 468.49 | METSYS::THOMPSON | Tue Apr 22 1997 04:52 | 19 | ||
I would blame declines in Alpha Workstation sales (VMS and UNIX). With pc's ever more powerful they are becoming the desktop of choice even in UNIX and VMS environments. If your PC can provide all the access you need to your server, why adopt a desktop than can't run Office et al? I bet this is the main source of erosion of Alpha sales. Also there has been a minor Alpha sales boom as existing customers migrate from VAX to ALPHA. That phase now seems to be over and we are now chasing new applications. On Servers we seem to be losing out big time to HP. Even that latest Business Week artical referred to them as our "Arch-rival". For some reason UNIX is now subject to Corporate strategists, when they mandate it seems to be HP. E.g. Boeing, Philips, Unipart ... Perhaps if Sales and Marketing are now the dominant part of the Company, as some writers interpret the latest re-org, things will change. M | |||||
| 468.50 | Anybody with a positive view out there? | CHEFS::PRINCE_T | Wed Apr 23 1997 04:48 | 10 | |
... I think I'll stop reading this conference. It's all gloom and
negativity. IMHO if we put as much energy into our everyday activities
as we sometimes do into our moans and groans we'd all be better off!
Can we have some positive views please?
Trevor
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| 468.51 | 57428::TREMELLING | Making tomorrow yesterday, today! | Wed Apr 23 1997 13:35 | 5 | |
Something about the darkest hour is just before the dawn?
This conference makes a good contrarian indicator.....
Darryl
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| 468.52 | PCBUOA::BAYJ | Jim, Portables | Mon Apr 28 1997 15:12 | 9 | |
I hate gloom and doom, too, but what I *really* hate is being mislead
by unrealistic optimism. It sometimes gets grey in between the realms
of "good attitude" and "false expectations".
If a good attitude could get this company out of its hole, that would
be great. But I think just a little bit more than that is called for.
jeb
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