| > anyone have a somewhat simple way to estimate the value of the shares?
two words: Auction market.
Just like the NYSE, a share is worth whatever anyone will pay for it,
and no more.
So what you do is float some shares with real paper, a la:
This Certificate entitles the bearer to receive
$10 from Joe Ciampa if and only if John Doe becomes
legally married in any U.S. State or Territory
on or before April 1, 1994.
signed ____________________
Joe Ciampa Date
Put all sorts of engraving and clipart around the side and you've got
an instant capital-generating machine. Of course you could do this
electronically, too ("unregistered" vs. "registered" stock :-), it all
depends on your preference. I think the key is stating the value of
the shares on the certificate, the "buying price" then depends on the
buyer's estimate of the odds.
You might make, say, 20 copies of the above certificate and sell them
from time to time whenever you got a bid you liked. You'd never HAVE
to sell. Once somebody buys a "share" they of course can turn around
and sell IT to anyone so you end up creating competition for yourself.
Long about March the above certificate would either be cashed in or
selling for a few pennies. Watch out if John Doe corners the market!
John
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well, you _could_ sell notes instead of shares... redeemable for
(say) $1000 if on 30-Mar John Doe (Dow?) is single, and $0 if he is
wed.
Then you might see some active speculation... and generate
some cash for the happy couple as well (assuming John is
responsible for delivering on the note, it might be interesting
to see how much "risk" he is willing to take on).
Long term marriage futures might be another interesting twist. Note
that since marital assets are not normally distributed, valuation may
be difficult.
Needless to say, John should be prevented from taking short positions.
p.s. John needs to be covered for events beyond his control.
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