| T.R | Title | User | Personal
Name | Date | Lines |
|---|
| 541.1 | | MSBCS::BROWN_L | | Fri Jul 30 1993 14:19 | 5 |
| Bill had a conference and said that their past growth (27% last
year) rate probably wouldn't be maintained and that future growth
would more match the industry (@10-15%ish). Stiff competition
from Lotus and Borland (also down), the maturing DOS=>Windows
conversion, and misc other factors were blamed.
|
| 541.2 | | SUBWAY::SAMBAMURTY | Raja | Fri Jul 30 1993 15:02 | 2 |
| ...and add to this to the fact that most brokerage houses (Goldman,
Merril, Cowen.....) downgraded the stock.
|
| 541.3 | You have to look at earnings growth | PIPE::DODGE | | Fri Jul 30 1993 16:42 | 15 |
| A good rule is that the P/E for a stock should be near its growth rate.
So if a stock is selling at a P/E of 20, the earnings should be growing
at 20% per year.
In the case of Microsoft they just earned $3.15 @ share, up from $2.41
@ share last year. That translates to roughly 31% growth. The P/E
when the stock is selling at $73 is 23 times. If earnings continued to
grow at 30% per year, then Microsoft is a great buy at $73.
If earnings growth is around 15% then 15 times earnings is a more
appropriate P/E. This would translate into a stock price of $47.25
based on trailing earnings.
Earning growth drives stock prices ...... even Microsofts.
|
| 541.4 | and the trend in earnings growth | WAREGL::CHANDRASEKHA | | Sun Aug 01 1993 11:46 | 10 |
| And the trend in earnings growth. Although they grew 31% on a yearly basis,
the growth for the quarter as compared to the same quarter last year
was around 27%. For example, if the stock has growth rates 34%, 32%, 29%
and 27% over Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 over the same quarters the previous year
it would show growth slowing down. Microsoft's growth has been slowing
down, as have the growth rates of other growth companies such as Novell
and Wal-Mart.
... Kris Chandrasekhar.
|
| 541.5 | Well then, how about at $84? | DECWET::LAURUNE | Bill Laurune, DECwest Engineering | Wed Oct 13 1993 10:18 | 5 |
|
MS is at $84 today (13-oct-93), so in retrospect, it was a good buy at
$73, at least as a short term investment.
Now the question becomes, is it a good buy at $84?
|