Conference nyoss1::market_investing

    I thought both Major and Kinnock have promised not to devalue the pound.
    This alone should tell you something is afoot.  I don't see how Major
    can avoid devaluation if he wants to bring Britain out of recession
    before elections.  Might that happen at the G7 this weekend?
    Note it was Major who pushed for joining ERM.
    
    I think the pound will generally decline until mid-March or so, then
    turn around and strengthen considerably.  Whether due to a devaluation
    or just part of a general Eurocurrency easing against the $, I cannot
    say.  (Only the Bundesbank knows for sure :-)
    
    Does anybody know if/what the mechanism is for devaluation within ERM?
    What value is there in an international currency standard if nations
    are free to violate the standard at will?
    
      John

	The pound sterling should stay withing a given range of the German Mark.

	If it looks as if it will go higher or lower, all other members of the
	Euro community - including ourselves, are to do their best to ensure it
	stays in the range.

	So, if the pound goes low, its not just the bank of England that will 
	intervene to keep it up, also the Bundesbank etc. etc, etc.
	If this fails, the rest of Europe will persuade us to change the rate
	band that we have promised to stay in-between.

	If the Conservatives stay in power, I don't see us having a problem. If
	Labour get into power, confidence in the pound and everything else, 
	will fall through the floor.
	I don't see how we can avoid changing the rate band against the Mark 
	in this situation.
	This is sometimes called devaluing, but it's not devaluing in the sense
	that was used when their were international fixed exchange rates.
		
	The European currencies are trying to keep their relative worth stable 
	with a hope to be able to move to a single currency.
	To do this, firstly we see if we can exist in a fairly wide band 
	difference, and then, once that is stable, we see if we can exist 
	within a narrower band, and then we go to one currency, and one
	entity. - Europe. The European countries will then just be like the 
	differing states of America.
	Already many of our old responsibilities and lawmaking have devolved 
	from the countries to Brussells. There is a European parliament which
	sits, and is voted in by people who belong to the EEC.

	Germany want the Mark, the English want the language, and the French
	want the politics (very broad generalisation).	

	Heather

	I also forgot to mention the effect that other countries could have on
	the pound.

	If the US cuts interest rates, then it will strengthen the Mark, it 
	probably won't have much effect on the pound, so that will put 
	pressure on us to lower the band.

	Also, if Spain or Germany increase their interest rates, it will also 
	put pressure on the pound to lower the band.

	Heather

    Would somebody mind explaining to me what "devaluing" means please?
    
    I don't understand the majority of financial news on TV, so an idiots
    guide type answer would be much appreciated.
    
    Thanks
    Dieter.(UK) 

    "devaluation" means that the British pound is convertible to a smaller
    amount of foreign currency, ie US dollars, D-marks, etc.

    What this does is make imports more expensive and exports less
    expensive, at least for a while.

    Eventually, in a free currency market, the valuation of all currency
    reflects purchasing power parity.

    Re .2
    
    Methinks Germans want the Mark, the French, naturellement, the
    language, and the Brits the politics?

>    Re .2
>    
>    Methinks Germans want the Mark, the French, naturellement, the
>    language, and the Brits the politics?


	Well the presure was too much, the countries wanted Germany to re-value
 	up wards and they wouldn't.

	One by one we're lettinmg ourselves be picked off by speculators - 
	you'd think we'd learn.

	The net effect is looking as if onlt the Mark will be left, unless they
	reduce their interest rates.

	The Germans are still after the currency - and we have decided that's 
	much to dodgey for our economy.

	The British are not after the politics, the French could always beat
	us at that, however they've never been able to spread a luanguage
	like us!

	Heather

>>>	The Germans are still after the currency - and we have decided that's 
>>>	much to dodgey for our economy.

	The Deutsche Bundesbank will have to lower interest rates after
	the end of workers council debates. It's the only reason they're
	stating to kepp interest rates high. It's just the danger of inflation
	to be kept low. Current offer is a (poor) 2.25% increase in salaries
	against a demand of 6.x%. Methinks a increase below 3.5 to 4%
	will wipe off all arguments to stay with the high rates. Economy is
	already that far down, that continuing this 'hardliners' course
	will bear a rally deep recession. The little ramp up due to the 
	reunion is alrady gone and people try to keep as much as possible 
	in their own pocket, since almost everybody is afraid to become 
	unemployed or working only x% of the original workload.

	Latest mid to end of march the Bundesbank has to restructure it's
	metrices to decide how they continue.

Patrik

>	The Deutsche Bundesbank will have to lower interest rates after
>	the end of workers council debates. It's the only reason they're

	Do you know when this is likely to be?


>        Current offer is a (poor) 2.25% increase in salaries

	That would have been a good raise here (and excellent in Digital)

>	Latest mid to end of march the Bundesbank has to restructure it's
>	metrices to decide how they continue.

	Is that about the same time the workers council debates end?

	Thanks,
	Heather

>	Do you know when this is likely to be?

	usually they happen during Feb mar apr time frame. There are debates
	for each of the segments like public, chemistry, metal etc....
	Last year the public segment debate was prolongated (??) into may
	due to strikes etc with heavy influences for everybody. Bottom line
	was that the cost of this strike was higher than the gain on the
	salary increase......

>	That would have been a good raise here (and excellent in Digital)

	I agree, but you know these discussions... you have to get in high
	to get at least a bit at the very end. It seems that this time
	the offer will not be very much increased during the discussions
	because it should be around the target inflation rate of 2%

> 	The biggest concerns of the bundesbank to lower rates are:
	- keep the foreign money in the country, because it's 
	  needed for the reunion. Trouble is: The early indicators 
	  project a -1.5% for Q1 and -2% for Q2 if rates stay as they are.
	- The D-Mark will heavily loose ground if rates will be lowered
	  and maybe the Currency system will have to stand another 
	  rough ride.
	- On the other hand there's no way to avoid a recession anymore
	  it's just a question how deep it'll be. On top lowering the rates 
	  now sharply will lead into high inflation with another 2 years
	  to go before an economic growths will show up again.


Just by the way: the british pound hit a new historic low today: 2.3530 DM
traders are speaking about a big disappointment about the currencypolitics
of the UK. Confidence of the marked has faded away that an leverage between
keeping inflation low and keeping economy up will be possible.
(Source: Handelsblatt)


Patrik

	Thanks for the info on how the pay-inceases work.

>Just by the way: the british pound hit a new historic low today: 2.3530 DM
>traders are speaking about a big disappointment about the currencypolitics
>of the UK. Confidence of the marked has faded away that an leverage between
>keeping inflation low and keeping economy up will be possible.

	It may be at an all-time low against the Mark, but its at the same 
	level as the dollar as it was in early 84, end 85 and end 86.
	Its at the same level as it was against the Franc in 76.
	
	The dollar has also fallen 40% against the Mark since its peak in mid 85

	Our stock market is at an all-time high.

	Business confidence is increasing.

	Our inflation rate is under 4%, the first time for a very long time,
	........down from 15%.

	I have no idea what to make of all that, except all currencies fluctuate
	and if the Americans aren't upset at the dollar/mark exchange rate,
	then I don't see why we should be with the Sterling/Mark exchange rate.

	And looking at all of this, It makes me even more surprised that we 
	thought we could buck the markets, and stabalise our exchange rates.

	Oh well, we shall see what happens to the interest rates in Germany once
	the pay-rounds have finished, and what happens in our budget in April.

	Heather

    
    Wouldn't the prospect of lower German interest rates argue for
    an investment in German bonds?
    
    Does investing in an International Bond fund make sense today?
    
    Thanks, Michael

maybe now we're changing the topic from english pound to interest 
discussion........ yesterday the german bundesbank lowered the interest rates
lombard from 9.5 to 9.0 and diskont fro 8.25 to 8.0. On top to
workers council debates for the public segment ended surprisingly yesterday 
evening in a consensus of 3% increase. This will mean at least -1.5%
loss compared to the inflation rate, but will help to fight the danger
of higher inflation. This will as well be judged as a signal for the
other debates coming in near future. The us$ of course rallied to 1.6624 DM
in Tokyo this morning. I don't know what the pound did ???

Regards
  Patrik

>. I don't know what the pound did ???

	Slightly up against the DM and $.

	As a rathole............Germany put 20% of its overseas investment 
	into the UK last year - 3 times more than it put into France.

	France even invested in 26 Britsh projects, creating 1,500 jobs here.

	Heather

	Just to continue this rathole.....  The Bundesbank was intended
	to make a 5 billion DM profit last year. After it had to get
	heavily involved into currency markets, because the dollar
	went south and tried to keep it above 1.40 DM they sold those
	dollars after it climbed abow 1.60 again. Such and more games
	have been played against several currencies..... Net profit
	at the end of last year have been 27 billion DM. Just a little
	bit above budget......

	Another thing to think about. If you set the amout of comodities
	traded between the countries equal to 1 (just as a figure) then 
	1985 the aount of money exchanged between the countries would
	equal to 1.5. Today (better last year) it reached a horriffic
        factor of 23!!! So you can imagine: the real money in not done
	by building, refining or trading goods.....

Patrik

>                       -< we got the wrong job (maybe) >-


	maybe - although I don't think I've got the nerve to deal in currencies!


	Heather

>	maybe - although I don't think I've got the nerve to deal in currencies!

	this is the well known brokers syndrom 

	- wrecked by 40 (if not exited early enough)
        - no chance to think about something different after a life like such
          which means no life after a life like such.

	there are only a few who found the right 'mix' ....

	Patrik

Todays newspaper report a Pound at 2.374 which is 2.5 Pfennig south.
It is said that Major will not be able to keep the interest rates
high enough to hold the pound at the current level, so new lows will
be seen pretty soon..... FWIW

Patrik

    I think the US$1.4000 level will hold and we should see sterling
    improve over the next few weeks.  Ditto for all the Eurocurrencies.
    (Don't know about the �/DM cross-rate; Patrik and I can both be right.
    Or both wrong, for that matter.)
    
      John

>>>    (Don't know about the �/DM cross-rate; Patrik and I can both be right.
>>>    Or both wrong, for that matter.)
    
I have to agree, I think if one of us could foresee which way any given
currency moves, we will neither sit on this chair writing notes nor.....

Patrik

By the way DM/� .... The pound hit news lows at 2.3517 DM last friday....

>    I think the US$1.4000 level will hold and we should see sterling
>    improve over the next few weeks.  Ditto for all the Eurocurrencies.
 

	$  1.4545
	DM 2.3694

	Going well against the dollar, and a little up off the floor from the DM

	I wonder if Majors trip to see Clinton will have any impact?  Hopefully
	it will not close any more doors, there is already the steel/aerospace,
	and the GATT stuff to clogg the wheels.

	Heather

	PS Maybe we could sell our expertise in implementing VAT, and on taxing
	private healthcare supplied by companies, and reducing mortgage relief 
	to only 30,000, and then only on the lowest rate, not highest.

Today, the 'Handelsblatt' (Economic and Finance Newspaper GY) asked
'which way with the Pound?'.... They showed a long term chart from 
1953 to today with a Pound declining from almost 12DM/Pound to 2.36 today.
There was a small move up in '81'82 from 4 to 5 DM but that's it.
They did not go into detail about the 'sidefactors' like inflation
or interest rates etc. Does somebody have a long term chart with these
values????

Patrik

Patrik, when I went to the states in '83, we were about $1.50, we are now
	$1.45, in between we have fluctuated between $1.08 and $1.99.
	If we have gone down against the DM, then the US $ must have also gone
	down an equal percentage.
	So, although I beleive the pound has gone down to something like 78% 
	of its 1974 average currency position (I think that's the number, they 
	give it out every evening on the news, I'll listen a bit more carefully
 	tonight), is the trend more one of the DM rising than the pound falling?

	Interest rates were about 16% in 82, they have been down to 4% and up to
	15% and back down to 6% since.
	I did see a chart in the Sundays a couple of weeks ago, but didn't 
	keep it.

	Heather

I'll post 4 regis charts in HAM:: decnet default account. Of course I 
don't have the data that far back into history, but maybe it will
shed some light into this: The filenames will be

dm-pfund.shr
dm-usd.shr
dm-yen.shr
dm-ausd.shr

print them on any LPSxx with qualifier /para=(data=regis,page_o=landsc)
or use retos (REgis TO Sixel) to convert it suitable for LN03 etc.....

I'll send you this chart from the 'Handelsblatt' by internal mail....

Regards 
   Patrik

	$1.42     DM 2.34       76% of its 1984 value (against major currencies)

	Heather

>	$1.42     DM 2.34       76% of its 1984 value (against major currencies)

	$1.44     DM 2.37    FTSE all time high 2882.6    78% of its 84 value


	Our money in circulation increased from 4.1% to 4.8%, showing people
	are spending more.

	Our manufacturing activty has risen for the first time in 8 months.

	Rumours of a German interset rate cut as the recession bites there.

	Heather

	Patrick, thanks for the graph

	
	It was pretty depressing reading - until I turned it upside-down!!!!!!


	Heather

>>>	It was pretty depressing reading - until I turned it upside-down!!!!!!
	Yup , that's it, nice Idea. If it isn't the way you like a chart
	turn it upside down and make it your favourite....

	Tomorrow The Bundesbank is again discussing their strategy. People
	don't believe that any change will happen, because of the 
	issued 'Mengentender' ( money issued by the Bundesbank for the 
	current month) was rated at 8.49% which is exactly .01% less than
	last month. This was taken as an indicator that there will be no
	change. FWIW I share this.... They got a lot critizismn (sp?) after
	the last reduction. Folks said better no change than a little one.
	If they will change rates tomorrow, they will show a weak position
	against the hardliners course they pretend to go.

	The 'Umlaufrendite' (Average Bond rate for long term 5-10 years)
	is coming near the low of '87. If it would break this resistance
	It would be the lowest for more than 15 years. '87 the interest rates
	have been at a quarter of today..... The market is ready for those
	low rates....The Bundesbank is not. If we see it positive, the people
	with loans and mortgages will have a nice time, because the longer
	Schlesinger will step on 'this brake' the faster and the lower rates
	will go.

	Patrik

>	Yup , that's it, nice Idea. If it isn't the way you like a chart
>	turn it upside down and make it your favourite....

	Well, it did look better    :-)


	There is a report in the paper today that Bundesbank vice-president
	Hans Tietmeyer urged chancellor Khol to "get our house in order" and 
	accused him of sabotaging the world economy with his bad management of 
	Germany's finances.
	
	There was also a comment that "A quick and lasting revision of 
	Germany's expensive social policy should be top priority" warned the 
	bank chief.

	I'd like to be a fly on the wall at tomorrows meeting!

	Meanwhile, sterling up against the Dollar and Mark, and FTSE at another
	record all-time-high.
	This would seem to me that the money people think that the German
	interest rates will go down.

	The results of tomorowws Bundesbank meeting, whatever they are, should 
	have an interesting affect!

	Maybe I'll have to look at the graph the right way up  :-(

	Heather

>>>	There is a report in the paper today that Bundesbank vice-president
>>>	Hans Tietmeyer urged chancellor Khol to "get our house in order" and 
>>>	accused him of sabotaging the world economy with his bad management of 
>>>	Germany's finances.
	
What Tietmeyr is doing there, is offloading his shoulders to Kohl. He's
blaming him not to 'get our house in order' and on the other side Tietmeyer
was the one arguing heaviest against the last ease of rates a few week ago.
They're in a deadlock blaming each other to do the first step (what's quite
usual in politics....) 

>>> as recession bites in Germany....

It has already taken a big chunk.....
There was a nice article in Financial times yesterday
on page 3 discussing the falling industrie productions.

Some exerpts:
	...Output is falling by an average 2,5 per cent each month and the 
	construction industrie is now the only sector showing any growth,
	according to figures published by the economics minister yesterday...

	...A comparison of production in December and January together with
	the same time period a year earlier showed total output had fallen 
	6.8%, manufacturing was down 7.7%. Within these figure, production of 
	capital goods slumped almost 11%, while construction rose 2.5%.
	New figures from the VDMA engineering and plant makers association
	showed new orders in January were 18% lower than a year earlier.
	Domestic demand fell 24% and new foreign contracts were down 11%...

	...Other government statistics due out later this week are expected
	to show further sharp increases in unemployment and falling orders
	across the whole manufacturing industry...

Regards
   Patrik

>They're in a deadlock blaming each other to do the first step (what's quite
>usual in politics....) 


	This is quite interesting, Major was slagging of Thatcher yesterday,
	blaming her free market doctrine and downgrading of manufacturing
	industry for delaying recovery...........

	..........and they were both on the same side.......he was her 
	chancellor of the exchequer for a time!
	

	Heather

	Here the fact: The 'Zentralbankrat' left the rates unchanged.
	German markets did not react nuch on it (DAX -0.87%) 

	The only sign of falling rates is the reduction of
	the yield (Rendite) of 'Bundesfinanzierungssch�tze' (whatever
	this is in english???...) from 7.00% to 6.85% (1 year) and
	                               6.65% to 6.50% (2 years).

   Patrik

I posted 2 regis charts on HAM::. One is the GY-Diskont since '82 and
the other the 'Umlaufrendite' (average yield of long 
term (5-10 years) Bundesanleihen). The low was in '87-'89 and the 
diskont 'pulled' the Umlaufredite down step by step. Today the Umlaufrendite
is close to it's low in '89 but the Diskont is close to it's alltime high.
If the umlaufrendite will fall another 0.5%, It'll be on a 15 year low.....

Patrik

P.S. The files are HAM::DISKONT.SHR and UMLAUF.SHR

On Friday (ona day after the Zentralbankrat had met) the Bundesbank 
surprisingly lowered the rates for 'Wertpapierpensionsgeschaefte' from
8.5 to 8.25%. This is taken as a serious sign that the diskont and lombard
rates will be lowered the next time the Zentralbankrat will meet. This will
happen next thursday in a week on 18-mar. One effect was the plunge of
the 'Umlaufrendite'from 6.47% to 6.37%. 

FWIW.... Let's see what and if it happens....

Patrik

>	$1.44     DM 2.37    FTSE all time high 2882.6    78% of its 84 value

	$1.44     DM 2.39    FTSE all time high 2957.3    77.6%   "

	British pay settlements are running at below 3% across the economy for
	the first time.

	The US long bond jumped more than a full point on the back of lower
	inflation expectations.

	Our government had the first defeat on an amendement to he Maastricht
	treaty - the first defeat on anything since '86

	Heather
	P.S. the rate that was reduced with the long name, is called the "repro"
	rate by our financial institutions

>	P.S. the rate that was reduced with the long name, is called the "repro"
    
    I think it's the "repo" rate in the U.S.  Repurchase agreements.
    
    BP/$ going UP!
    
      John

Re .34

	"Wertpapierpensionsgeschaefte" rates from 8.5 to 8.25 %
	considered as serious sign that that the diskont and lombart
	rates will be lowered the next time the Zentralbankrat will met
	(on 18-march)

	I disagree . 

	Each time everybody thinks or speaks that one important event
	shoud arrive ; it does not !!
	Each time , everybody is not awaiting something important, it comes !
    
	Here in France , many people speaks about lower rates on 18-march.

	and (or but ? )

	1) French CAC40 indice has reached its highest since 1990.
	   From 2000 this week we slow down to 1960 maybe less.
	   1965 at the end today; many options for end of march sell.

	2) Each time, german rates were to be lowered , CAC40 grew.

	3) On 21 and 28th march , french votes for the "Parlement".
           All the statistics are giving RIGHT coming back to the gvnt.
    
	I am pessimist , may be I am wrong; but I think rates will be
	lowered in April.

	PAscal.

	Well, it's budget day in the UK today.....last March budget.

	Budegt will be moving to November - so we have two this year.


	Loads of rumours, loads of contradictory rumours.
	

	Nothing much moving for the last week until the outcome is known.


	Heather - who believes she will be worse off whatever happens

	Well, we've had the budget, first time anyone can remember that it had
	no effect on exchange rates.

	$1.44.8     DM 2.40

	FTSE dropped 24 points on early trading, less than half of what was 
	forcast.

	From investment standpoint, national savings (goverment way of 
	borrowing) has had all its limits raise by at least 100%, some 400%.
	Bonds have been re-introduced.
	
	BES investment loan-back has been stopped - this gave gauranteed
	mega money, something like 40% over 6 months, tax free. (yup, a 
	wonderful loophole that one).

	Gilts can now be bought through banks and building societies.

	Advanced corporation tax has been changed to encouraging foreign 
	investment, (it was actually to stop peanalising them) even though 33% 
	of all foreign investment in the EEC last year went to the UK.

	Tax relief on dividends has been lowered 25% to 20% - this will hit 
	pension fund investment, and any other dividend income.

	PEPS - a way of investing tax free for growth and income in shares over
	5 years - has had its yearly limit raised from 6,000 to 7,000, but
	gilts have NOT been included (it was rumoured they would be)

	Loads of things on self-assesement taxes and stuff I have yet to fathom
 	out.

	Heather    (worse off)

	re .-few

	Imagination is running wild in the newspapers. Some see a change 
	tomorrow, some swere there will be no change..... If I could foresee
	those events, I won't sit anylonger on this chair. The 'Bundesbank'
	agrees to some 'independent economists' that the old steering tools
	are no longer the non plus ultra and are discussing some 'derivates'
	to key rates etc. The ease of some less popular key things are
	taken as a somewhat 'trial on error' method, since the 'bundesbank'
	has not yet reported if the past actions have been successful in their
	eyes or not. This is also the reason why some people think there
	will be no change now (even it would be time to lower rates due to 
	economic weakness and position in ERM). Anyway let's see what happens
	(or not happens) tomorrow. A change is already incorporated in the 
	current 'Umlaufrendite'.....

	Regards
             Patrik

    See .19, dated 10-Feb-93 when the � closed about $1.4160 on the 
    June IMM futures contract.
    
    As predicted, the $1.40 level held (was never broken) and the same June
    contract is now trading North of $1.4800.  But I think we're in for a
    period of consolidation and retracement; time to take profits.
    
      John

>	$1.44.8     DM 2.40

	$1.48.3     DM 2.42

	The german interest rates were reduced by .5%

	I'm not sure how the French elections will effect this, the right-wing
	groups look as if they have 40% of the vote, which translates to 80%
	of the seats. A massive move to the right.

	Heather

>	I'm not sure how the French elections will effect this, the right-wing
>	groups look as if they have 40% of the vote, which translates to 80%
>	of the seats. A massive move to the right.

    Vive le France!
    
    I expect French interest rates to drop like a rock over the summer.
    The franc may suffer, EC92 may suffer, but I'll wager the conservatives
    know that for better or worse they gotta reduce the unemployment rate.
    Since they've only got two years to make progress (Prez. elections),
    I'll wager a massive rate reduction is forthcoming.  Preferably with
    German/British coordination, but coming nevertheless.
    
      John

>	$1.483     DM 2.42

	$1.489     DM 2.4365     FTSE 2863.9

	fears of power struggle in Russia reducing hopes of an interest rate
	cut, along with falls in Wall street, and profit-taking before the end 
	of the financial year precipitated a 36.2 fall in the FTSE.

	Gilts lost 1 quid.

	What with the turmoil Russia, landlide in France, and a few waves in 
	Germany and the UK - this is high-risk season.

	Heather

>	$1.489     DM 2.4365     FTSE 2863.9

	$1.484	   DM 2.4172     FTSE 2860.6

>	Gilts lost 1 quid.

	Gilts lost another 0.5 quid as details of next wednesdays 3billion
	auction of 8% treasury 2013 stock auction were released

	Building societys are threatening to put up rates to mortgage holders
	because they need increase savers rates,  as people move their money
	to National Savings, especially the re-introduced Bond.

	Heather

	re .42

	>>>The german interest rates were reduced by .5%

	Just to be correct: it was the discont which was reduced by .5%
	The 'Lombard' stayed where it was. This was very disappointing
	to the markets, but it was exactly what they wanted: DM-US$ didn't
	run either way. Bond markets consolidates now at 6.5 and the BUND-
	Future is now at 95.27 after a high close to 97 2 week before.

	Patrik

>	The 'Lombard' stayed where it was. This was very disappointing
>	to the markets, but it was exactly what they wanted: DM-US$ didn't
>	run either way. 		        ^^^^
    					    Who is "they"?
    
    I heard things just the other way:  Serious German rate cuts are coming
    regardless of the exchange rate impact.  Else the economy chokes and 
    a DEEP recession follows.  Isn't German unemployment over 10% right now?  
    What % unemployment spells election disaster?
    
    I'm short the DM (vs. $US) but that could change anytime.
    
      John

    
>    I heard things just the other way:  Serious German rate cuts are coming
>    regardless of the exchange rate impact.  Else the economy chokes and 
>    a DEEP recession follows.  Isn't German unemployment over 10% right now?  
>    What % unemployment spells election disaster?
 

	From what I'm reading in the UK, German rates are expected to fall,
	because of the looming recession in Germany, and also France.
	France is one of the few countries let that has not been stung by
	the ERM, and German rates, but it's not expected to last, especially
	with the upheaval in the French elections.

	
	We will see.

	Heather

    re: .47
    
    John, let us know if/when you go long on the D-Mark.  My May put option
    has been drifting aimlessly, but mainly down!  
    
    Long term, I see it heading down too, but it may not been soon enough
    for me.
    
    
    							Fred

	Yesterday evening , Monday the 28th March, Mr Mitterand spoke 
	on TV and Radio . AT the same time he announced Mr Balladur
	to be the Premier, he asked a stability on FF/DM parity as a base
	to the european (Mastricht) way. And this is one of the most
	important reason why Mr Balladur has been chosen.

	So , there will not be french Franc devaluation.

 	So, then , with a stable FF/DM change of about 3.40FF for 1 DM,
	we may hope a very serious common (french and Deutsch) rate cuts
	to fight against recession and unmployement elements.

	So the US$ will grow. I am sure it will be near 6FF/1$ or
    	1,75DM/1$ before the end of june, and probably sooner.

	Pascal.
	

>	$1.484	   DM 2.4172     FTSE 2860.6

	$1.519	   DM 2.443      FTSE 2832.2


	House prices up average of 1.5% in March - first rise in 12 months.

	New car sales up 12.7%, the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
	Ford cut its prices by 10% across all its ranges yesterday.

	Even the Bank of England is saying they think the recession has come
	to an end.

	Heather...........I hope it's not "famous last words"!

( for comparison, 28th Feb: 
	$1.42      DM 2.34       FTSE 2882   )


>	$1.519	   DM 2.443      FTSE 2832.2

	$1.5565	   DM 2.4613     FTSE 2846.8


	
	More city analysts saying the recseesion has come to an end.

	Long gilts advanced 50p, money markets do not think another cut in
	interest rates is imminent unless the pound rises above 2.5 Marks,
	when they guess .5% cut would be likely.

	Heather

	Sorry for not replying earlier, but just came back from vacation.

	re .47

	with 'they' I meant the Zentralbankrat (Bundesbank) not to lower
	rates too fast. The 'way of tiny steps' gives them the chance to
	watch the process close without letting the other (noneuropean)
	currencies run too fast. You're right, there is no way to leave
	rates as high , but a skyrocketing US$ (or other) will cut of
	revenues on ex/imports pretty hard. This may boost the recession
	further more as the economy in the 'neue Bundeslaender' (old GDR)
	is almost at (below) ground level. Still today the reunion is a 
	bottomless barrel (as we say) and the next planned increase of 
	salaries will kill approx. 30% of all companies which made it 
	till today.!!! 

	Markets are expecting the next reduction of interest rates around
	mid may. They vote for a 1% or more which will boost the US$
	pretty high to DM 1.70 (they expect). In the past the reduction
	never reached the expected, so I go for max .5 to .75%.....


	Patrik
	

	German repro rate reduced from 8.11 to 8.09% yesterday

	Bundesbank is organising a press release this afternoon, but markets
	expect it to be a credit-easing announcement, not an interest rate
	reduction.

	Heather

>	$1.5565	   DM 2.4613     FTSE 2846.8

	$1.539	   DM 2.467      FTSE 2869.6


	Buyers of the more expensive houses have returned to the market for the
	first time in 4 years.
	Mortgage lenders, estate agents and builders have all been shouting 
	that the recovery in house prices is underway.
	Fund managers have been piling into building shares, which look as if
	they have returned to be the flavour-of-the-day.

	
	Heather

	Against all expectations it was an interest rate 
	reduction yesterday.

	Diskont now on 7.25 (-.25)
	Lombard now om 8.5  (-.50)

	Dollar rallied for a while, but settled on 1.64.....

	Patrik

>	$1.539	   DM 2.467      FTSE 2869.6

	$1.5895	   DM 2.4977     FTSE 2822.3

	
	Heather

	Currency markets getting weird now. Against the DM the Pound
	continues to move up while the US$ went south pretty sharp.
	US$ on Monday 1.5704 after fridays late close at 1.5959.
	This happened after publishing the bad US economic figures on friday.

FWIW patrik

	Bundesbank say they will keep reducing interest rates by as much as the
	market will stand.....This is a complete change pf policy.

	France reduced their two prime leanding rates by .25%

	I haven't got the exchange figrues, from what I remember on R4,
	down against the Mark, up against the dollar, and FTSE down(under 2800).

	Germany are forcasting economy will decline by 1%, many observers think
	it will be 2%. UK is forcasting 1% growth.

	BUT, Germany is our biggest export market.

	
			Britain				Germany
		1992     1993 forcast              1992    1993 forcast
GDP	        -0.5%	    +1.0%		    +0.9%     -2.5%
Exports         +1.9%       +4.0%		    +3.5%     +2.0%
Imports	        +5.1%       +4.0%		    +4.5%     +3.0%
Inudt Prodctn   +0.4%       +1.8%		    -1.4%     -7.5%
Jobless		10.5%       10.7%		     7.4%      9.0%
Current Acct  -�11.9bn    -�18.0bn		  -�15.6bn  -�18.0bn   
Inflation       +1.8%       +2.9%		    +4.0%     +4.1%


	I'd be an observer, or speculator over the next month or so, not for
	anyone who wants security!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

	Heather   .......chicken observer.

>	$1.5895	   DM 2.4977     FTSE 2822.3

	$1.570     DM 2.467      FTSE 28126

	
	Heather

>	$1.570     DM 2.467      FTSE 28126

	$1.5393    DM 2.4675     FTSE 2829.8

	Concern over the Newbury bielection, and local council returns
	have shaken the confidence in sterling.


	I bet it stays low until 1st June, and recovers by 1st July,
	thereby wiping out any gain I get in ESPP for the third time in a 
	row!!!!!!

	Heather

>	$1.5393    DM 2.4675     FTSE 2829.8

>	$1.5397    DM 2.4992     FTSE 2819.7
  

	gilts hardened 50p as dealers assess details of new auction of 3bn
	of 7.75% Treasury 2006.
	
	The current trading account ends tomorrow.

	gold expected to go to $470 before dropping back to $400
	Sir James Goldsmith sold his stake of Newmont to super-speculator 
	George Soros.

	Heather

>	$1.5397    DM 2.4992     FTSE 2819.7

	$1.5095    DM 2.4741     FTSE 2866.9
  

	Interest rate cuts still optimistic, we'll wait and see till next
	Wednesday, the day after the chancellor's maiden mansion house speach


	Heather

>	$1.5095    DM 2.4741     FTSE 2866.9
 
	$1.5022	   DM 2.4944	 FTSE 2883.0

	Mansion house speach was run-of-the-mill.

	Waiting to see what the Bundesbank does at todays meeting

	Heather

>	$1.5022	   DM 2.4944	 FTSE 2883.0


	$1.4865	   DM 2.5113     FTSE 2903.4


	FTSE at it's highest since March

	French lowered their interest rate, it's the first time it's been
	lower than Germany's in over 20 years.

	Germany no longer looks like the benchmark for European countries
	exchange rates. The French Franc seems to be taking over.

	Heather

>>>	Germany no longer looks like the benchmark for European countries
>>>	exchange rates. The French Franc seems to be taking over.

Roumors say that there was a secret meeting between members of the
french and german boardmembers of the 'Bundesbank' (and french equivalent).
So your observation may have a severe background. Gy Bundesbank sees
no chance to lower rates before Theo Waigel (GY Financeminister) will 
present a 'real' and trustable package to reduce deficits effective this
year. This could be done earliest in parliament on 13-jul so earliest meeting 
of the Bundesbank to affect the rates will be 15-jul. I doubt that there will
be any change before august.


Patrik

I'll leave this company at the end of this year after 15 years highs
and lows with DEC in Frankfurt/Munich and Hamburg. If there is somebody
interested in historical notations (closings) of the shares making up the
german DAX (from 87 till today) and some 30 US stocks (just 1 1/2 years
exept HP,DEC,IBM from 76 on) you may get this from EICMFG::AJK. My account will
disappear today, so If somebody wanted to sell mail to me please use
All-in-1 Patrik Geschwindner@HBF. Together with the data you may get a little
program to build your own chart from this raw data plus some option pricing
calculations to project different option strategies.

Goodbye to all you noters.....

Regards
  Patrik

	From UK Livewire, a report in the times.........


              Digital Internal Communication           

    PARIS MAY QUIT ERM OVER INTEREST RATES

    The row between France and Germany over interest rates could lead
    France to leave the exchange rate mechanism, according to official
    sources.  France wants much lower interest rates in the next two
    months, and is less willing to co-operate with the Bundesbank, which is
    dragging its feet on reductions.  Germany refused to attend a meeting
    of the Franco German Economic Council in Paris last week after the French 
    apparently tried to bounce it into co-ordinated rate cuts.

    The Times, London.  28th June 1993


	I am sorry to see you go, Patrick

	Heather

	This morning the 'Handelsblatt' published a similar article
	stating that France will increase pressure to lower interest rates.
	It was not reported that France may leave ERM as a result of
	not coordinated reductions. GY Finance minister Waigel said
	there is absolute no discussion about a strategy to lower rates
	together with France. On top a speaker of the Bundesbank reported
	that the D-Mark currently is driven into a weaker position due
	to the weird rumours in the currency markets. The D-Mark 
	on friday was 0.5854 US$ (US$=1.7078) and 0.3973 Pound (2.5170).
	As long the high money expansion goes along with this weak position, 
	there will be no room for reductions. Some traders still believe
	that next meeting (1-jul) there'll be a chance, but most don't.

	Patrik

>	$1.4865	   DM 2.5113     FTSE 2903.4

	$1.4930	   DM 2.5384     FTSE 2897.0


	A weekend survey suggests that sterling will be the most popular 
	currency this year.

	Heather

    
    is Sterling is going to be the most popular currency, that means it
    will go up? So I should move dollars to sterling? As an expat I have
    accounts in the US and the UK, and would like to do something
    intelligent with my money.
    
    Did I get the above right? Actually with rate at 1.49 or so, I should
    move my dollars to England, and with the depressed real estate buy a
    rental place?
    
    Simon

	The papers say that sterling will be the most popular EUROPEAN currency,
	which, in general, would favour moving other European currencies to
	sterling. It didn't mention how it would perform against the dollar.


	However thay also quoted.......the world is in recession and economic 
	growth the big thing. Even though our recovery is pretty paltry, it is
	still the best in Europe.


	Would I believe it?.........maybe.


	Heather

    I'm not sure real estate is wise but I think sterling will outperform
    dollars from here until Autumn.  My guess is Major will pull a Mulroney,
    stepping aside for the good of the party.  With a new face in England
    and the realization that America is stuck with Clinton until 1996, a lot 
    of money will decide to flee dollars.  IMHO of course.
    
      John

>	$1.4930	   DM 2.5384     FTSE 2897.0

	$1.5077	   DM 2.5563     FTSE 2888.8

	The Germans cut their interest rate .5%

	followed by France, Switzerland,Belgium,Holland and Ireland

	Germany still remains the biggest impediment for cutting interest 
	rates in Europe, as no new move is now forcat until at least Sept.

	Germany and the UK need to increase taxes to cut their deficits,
	however this could ruin the fragile recoveries.

	If anyone has any bright ideas, we could use them!!!!

	Heather

>	Germany still remains the biggest impediment for cutting interest 
>	rates in Europe, as no new move is now forcat until at least Sept.
    
    Well, .66 felt this last cut wouldn't come until August.  Looks like
    GY is cutting rates often, though by small amounts.  I'll bet there is
    at least one more similar cut in July or August.
    
>	If anyone has any bright ideas, we could use them!!!!
    
    Spend less.  Look at Hong Kong:  no state welfare, everybody works,
    the budget is balanced and the government has about as much FX reserves
    as the U.S. Treasury.  Pure Capitalism at its finest.
    
      John

>>	Germany still remains the biggest impediment for cutting interest 
>>	rates in Europe, as no new move is now forcat until at least Sept.
>    
>    Well, .66 felt this last cut wouldn't come until August.  Looks like
>    GY is cutting rates often, though by small amounts.  I'll bet there is
>    at least one more similar cut in July or August.
 
	I wouldn't bank on it, a 0.5% cut is big for Germany, the markets were
	expecting .25% cut in August.....that's why they think there's
	nothing left to come.
	However , I live in hope.
   

	Spend less.........that means generating work for 3 million people,
	pass the makic wand :-)

	Heather

>	$1.5077	   DM 2.5563     FTSE 2888.8

	$1.5105	   DM 2.5682     FTSE 2848.1

	Heather

	Well, the Franc is 1.5 centimes off the floor of the ERM.

	Unless Germany cut their interest rates PDQ, or buy loads of Francs,
	France will be out of the ERM.

	France's economy is going into recession and they need to cut interest
	rates, however, if they do, the Franc will fall.

	This is a similar position to the UK when we came out. On that
	occaision Germany would not budge or help, they insisted the
	interest rates were the right level.

	Since then, they have been gradually reducing the interest rates. I
	believe they will help France as much as they can, as they don't want 
	to see the ERM collapse.

	Mind you, this comes just after everyone was saying that the Franc was 
	taking over from the DM as the stable base currency of the ERM.

	Today could be interesting, tomorrow the Germans have a public holiday,
	Thursday the bundesbank meet........the feeling is they have to do
	something today.

	We live in interesting times.

	Heather

	Germany proposed measures to cut their budget deficit by 6 billion 
	pounds yesterday, to allow for interest rates to be cut.


	It includes loosening restrictions on Sunday and holiday working.
	Cutting child benefit, maternity leave, effecting university students,
	civil servants....and construction workers who currently get paid for
	each day they can't work due to rain.
	They have approved a draft law which will allow women to work in mines
	and factory night shifts.

	The unions plan to fight it, the economists say it's the only thing 
	that will work.


	So........we'll see what gets through, but these are quite drastic
	changes to the social expectations of Germans. The governmane is 
	obviously very serious about persuading the Bundesbank to cut rates.

	Heather

>	$1.5105	   DM 2.5682     FTSE 2848.1
		  
	$1.5005	   DM 2.5783	 FTSE 2832.3		


	The markets are waiting to see if Germany does anything to it's 
	interest rates.

	Central bank in Europe rallied around the Krone and the Franc
	yesterday, enabling them to keep just above the floor of the ERM.

	Tuesday had good output figures for the UK up 1.8%, and Wednesday had 
	good inflation figures, down to 1.2%

	Heather

	Well, the Bndesbank did not cut interest rates.

	The UK unemployment figures dropped for the 5th month in a row
	The production was up
	And manufactuing unit cost down.
	

	Don't hold your breath...

	Heather

		  
>	$1.5005	   DM 2.5783	 FTSE 2832.3		

	$1.5007	   DM 2.5684	 FTSE 2823.9



	Germany say there is no likleyhood of them cutting rates in the
	near future.

	The Krone and Franc are wobbling.

	Natwest Bank will hit the markets with a 700million cash call this 
	morning, futures tradings have slumped.


	Heather

>	Natwest Bank will hit the markets with a 700million cash call this 
    
    What's a cash call?  Is that in � or $?
    
      John

>>	Natwest Bank will hit the markets with a 700million cash call this 
>    
>    What's a cash call?  Is that in � or $?
 
	That's in �.

	A cash call is bad news, they've overstreched themselves and need the 
	cash now, and don't have the liquid assets to convert.

	I'm not sure of the logic for going for a cash call rather than a rights
	issue......maybe it's just in the speed.

	I bank with NATwest.......at least it's only my current acount 
	(checking account) I don't save with them or have my mortgage with them.

	Heather

    Thanks, but I'm still missing a link.
    
>	A cash call is bad news, they've overstreched themselves and need the 
>	cash now, and don't have the liquid assets to convert.
    
    So what do they do?  Borrow money via the City?  Invent/sell more shares?
    Call in perfectly good loans?
    
    In the USA, banks are required to keep a certain portion of their deposits 
    (the "reserve rate") in cash form.  When a lot of withdrawals occur and
    cash falls below this then the banks are forced to borrow money from
    other banks (Fed Funds Rate, typically overnight) or the Federal Reserve 
    (Discount Rate, typically longer than overnight).  A similar event
    in the USA would probably just involve a knock on the Fed's door for 
    a quick shot of cash -- always provided, but that amount would almost 
    insure a bank audit in the near future.  Inept bankers would thus be
    caught by the auditors and sent packing (unless they had friends in
    Congress, but that never happens :-).
    
    I take it that British banks have a more open approach, which likely
    means such problems happen less often but more spectacularly when they do.
    
      John

    
>    So what do they do?  Borrow money via the City?  Invent/sell more shares?
>    Call in perfectly good loans?
 

	Borrow money via the city.

	Their shares dropped 15p to 491p on the rumour that they would issue
	the cash call.

>   A similar event  in the USA would probably just involve a knock on the 
>   Fed's door for 
>    a quick shot of cash -- always provided, but that amount would almost 
>    insure a bank audit in the near future.  Inept bankers would thus be
>    caught by the auditors and sent packing (unless they had friends in
>    Congress, but that never happens :-).
    
>    I take it that British banks have a more open approach, which likely
>    means such problems happen less often but more spectacularly when they do.
 
	The bank of England may knock on the governments door, but I don't
	think any others can......they go to the markets.
   
	The markets loan them the money, and their share price drops!

	I'll listen to the news on the way home.

	Heather

	No cash call.

	Traders are expecting a 500million preference share issue instead of the
	700million cash call. shares went down another 9p.


	No news on the Krone/Franc, they're still teetering on the edge.

	Heather

	Well, we live in interesting times.......


	Some Conservatives don't want us in Europe.

	So, they voted FOR the social chapter(which they really don't want)
	so as to invalidate the Maastrict treaty, so we couldn't go ahead.

	They managed to win yesterday.

	Major will put a vote of confidence to the house today, linked to
	the social chapter.

	If he losses, there will be an election.

	which I expect Labour to win ( and put throught the social chapter
	anyway, but that's by-the-by)

	And, the ERM

	The French announced they were closing the emergency lending window.
	Speculators will onlt be able to use a 24-hour facility.
	This is a defensive move, allowing the French to raise very short term
	rates sharply

	The specultors smelt blood, and the selling of the Franc was 
	accellerated.

	Intervention bt French and German banks failed to get the Franc above
	the DM3.1480, close to it's floor. The Krone is also flat on it's
	back. The Spanish Peseta strted to tumble, followed by the Portugese
	escudo which dropped like a stone.

	So , unless you like really risky bets, I wouldn't put your money
	here at the moment!

	Heather

Heather,

Always a pleasure to read your input.  Given your views on the European markets,
just how does the UK and Europe in general view the American markets?

Thanks,

Bob

	I don't believe it's quite as volatile as ourselves, however what we 
	want to see to encourage us to take the leap and invest is a 
	determination AND ability to reduce the the balance of payments 
	deficit, and, even more importantly, curb the trend of protectionism.

	America used to be a model to aim for whan looking at free-trade. It no
	longer is, it is becoming more protectinist. This then puts the 
	frighteners on investors, who see this as reducing trade, and 
	increasing unemployment, thus hitting the budget.

	America is leaning more towards Germany, and away from the UK at the
 	moment.
	In the UK, this is seen, not quite a betrayal, but we don't like it, 
	especially as the German economy is going through bad times, and
	looking inwards.

	Now, this is my viewpoint, based on the stuff that I read in the finance
	papers and hear on the radio...........so it's all FWIW.


	Major won the vote of no confidence by 40 votes. The legalities are now
	being looked at in court - to see if we can actually give power away
	to a European entity.

	The Conservative party needs to pull itself together during the summer 
	recession, which starts Wednesday.

	The French Franc still looks dodgey, the markets think that if the 
	bundesbank doesn't reduce intertest rates on Thursday, that'll be it for
	the ERM.

	Heather

	Opps,

	For summer recession, read,     summer recess....


	....I didn't intend to predict anything!

	Heather

>	$1.5007	   DM 2.5684	 FTSE 2823.9

	$1.5010	   DM 2.5855	 FTSE 2844.2

	The FTSE rose 18.3 yesterday on wafer thin trading. Looks like they
	are "clutching at straws" on the hope of an interest rate cut.

	Half the market expects it, the other half doesn't, with forcats of 
	FTSE under 2800 by early August (I might invest in a PEP if it does 
	that)!

	Possibility of a leadership challlenge in the Autumn Conservative
	party conference, that would hit the shares for six......the wrong way!

	He will probably loose the Christchurch Bi-election Thursday - but 
	everyone expects it so it shouldn't affect the markets.

	The Franc and Krone are still under pressure.

	Heather

	I've heard a rumour the French Franc has devalued.

	I'll get the financial times tomorrow and let you know what the markets
	think about this.


	(If it's true)
	Heather

	Rumour was false.

	expectations of a 0.2% decrease on German inertest rates today, to
	steady the ERM before they go off on hols.

	everyones holding their breath

    The Bundesbank cut its Lombard rate by �% to 7.75%
    but left the more important discount rate unchanged:  6.75%
    
    Reminds me of Nero fiddling, though of course the bank has its reasons.
    
    I expect the rest of ERM to crumble long about the second week of August.
    
    DM has taken a slight drop but well within daily trading fluctuations.
    
      John

	I will admit to being very confused when it comes to currency matters.

	What I don't understand is that the Lombard rate was cut to help support
	the French Franc. But the latter drifted even lower after the 
	annoucement (against the DM). Why?

	[Any suggestions for a primer on currency interactions? 
	 No, John H. a suggestion to drink decaf won't do :-)]

>	What I don't understand is that the Lombard rate was cut to help support
>	the French Franc. But the latter drifted even lower after the 
    
    In these matters Lombard rate isn't as important as the Discount rate.
    Not lowering the Discount rate means France has to raise the value
    of the FFr by, say, raising interest rates -- unwise in a recession.
    Or France and Germany have to sell DM for FFr. on the open market,
    but beware that Central Banks don't have as much cash as the private
    sector; global forex transactions are HUGE.
    
    As I understand it, Gemany is facing a huge increase in its money supply,
    brought about largely by the LBO of former East Germany when all the
    Ostmarks were monetized.  When the money supply expands too fast the
    book solution is to raise interest rates.  Which would slow down the
    expansion and increase the value of the currency (DM).  Which would
    cause the other Eurocurrencies to drop below their lower bands.
    
    Super-speculator George Soros (says he) has bet a lot that GY will ease
    and the DM will drop versus the $.  That hasn't happened yet.
    
      John
    
    (ob�:  I've been short the Pound for 3 days but think it's bottomming).

	Well, the Bundesbank decision not to cut it's key interest rate
	has caused the ERM to be worse than useless, and the Maastrict treaty
	to be close to useless.

	The 2.5% bands, which were seen to be crucial for European monetary
	union in 1997 have been abolished, and replaced by 15% bands. (apart 
	from the Dutch Gulder, which will remain in the 2.5% band)

	This allows a fluctuation of 30% - hardly stability and a move to
	monetary union!

	The French are blaming the Germans, and the British are saying "I told
	you so".

	It is also Ironic that we ratified the Maastrict treaty yesterday, and
	Germany is the only country left who has not done so.

	$1.4960		DM  2.5571	FTSE

	BZw sees a fall against the dollar to 1.40, and a raise against the
	DM to 2.60
	
	Heather

    
    
    On a note of corporate interest:
    
    Is what is happening to the ERM good news for Digital, given the
    present weak nature of the European market for us?
    
    I assume that the wide bands will lead  EC member countries to lower
    interest rates, spurring growth in the many EC countries whose interest
    rate policies were to date governed by the 2.5% bands.  More growth in
    Europe perhaps equals more sales for Digital . . .
    
    Kaizad 

    
    it the dollar weren't so low I'd be buying European Mutual Funds. I'm
    from England and live in the States. TYpically the European economic
    cycle is 2 years behind the US. Europe is about to experience the lower
    interest rates that have pushed the Dow to record highs. I just wish my
    buying power were higher! My parents send a brokers letter saying the
    pound will be down to $1.39 by the end of this year.
    
    Simon

	The break of the ERM is forcast to help Europe out of the recession,
	it should be good news for business.

	Spain cut its main interest rate, France, Belgium and Denmark are 
	waiting for each other to cut - noone wants to go first, incase going
	first brings pressure on the currency - even though the Peseta 
	strengthened after their cut.

	Fixed rate mortgage rates could come down

	European equities are looking a good buy.

	$1.5035		DM  2.5640

	Heather

>	$1.5035		DM  2.5640

	$1.4965		DM  2.2540	FTSE 2969.8 (near all time high)


	Heather

>>	$1.5035		DM  2.5640

>	$1.4965		DM  2.2540	FTSE 2969.8 (near all time high)


	Methinks I made a typo, and DM should be 2.5420.

	FTSE is at an all time high, I didn't get a paper this morning,
	I'll post some numbers if I get one lunch time.

	Heather

>>	$1.4965		DM  2.2540	FTSE 2969.8 (near all time high)

>	Methinks I made a typo, and DM should be 2.5420.


	$1.4960		DM  2.5353	FTSE  2986.4  a record high


	Bank of France cut 24-hour rate by .25% to 9.75%, convincing everyone
	Europen rates will be sharply lower by the end of the year.

	Bank of England quarterly bulletin showing flationary pressures falling
	and consumer confidence growing. 

	two months ago predictions of the FTSE being 2800 seem to be lost,
	with the "collapse" of the ERM. Predictions are for 3100 plus to 3500
	by the end of the year.

	Last year, as we were under pressure in the ERM, Europe was saying that
	if the pound was devalued or floated we would face a terible time.....
	Inflation would rise due to soaring import costs and higher interest
	rates would be needed to persuade foriegners to hold our weakened
	and pathetic currency. This would have turned our recession into a 
	slump.

	Now, a year later with the pound floating, interest rates are down 
	from 10% to 6%, inflation down to 1.2%, and the economy growing not
	shrinking. |Inflation expected to be around 3% at end of the year.

	so, FTSE 2,800 or 3,500 - any bets?

	Heather

>	$1.4960		DM  2.5353	FTSE  2986.4  a record high

	$1.4777		DM  2.5309	FTSE  3006.1	a record high

>	Bank of France cut 24-hour rate by .25% to 9.75%, convincing everyone
>	Europen rates will be sharply lower by the end of the year.

	Bank of France cut it's overnight rate again, down .5% to 9.25%
	Left it's 5-10 day leanding rate at 10%.

	The UK market expects the chancellor to cut interest rates in the
	autumn budget (November).

	The Confederation of British Industry said that the recovery is 
	spreading fast, with demand for factory goods likely to rise in most
	parts of the country between now and the autumn.
	It's regional trends survey show that order book increases are now more
	widespread than at any time since the recession started 3 years ago.

	Heather
	

	Not sure if this goes here, move it if appropriate please.

	Looking at the record 3000+ FTSE	

	p/e ratio is 19.4, close to where it was before the 87 crash

	Dividend yield is low, just under 4pc, but not as low as 87

	Bond-equity yield ratio is well below it's 2.3 average, so even
	if shares look expensive, the alternative yield on gilts do not suggest
	investors should switch.


	This looks fine, PROVIDED Wall street does not come unstuck, dragging
	down other markets.

	In the US

	p/e is well above average, AND its peak in 87

	dividend yield is one of the lowest in Wall Streets hsitory

	bond/equity ratio is nueteral, srtanding at the average for last 10 
	years.

	The only thing that will make Wall St look safe is a real economic 
	revival in the US.

	So, it looks a bit unceratin here, but from here, wall street looks
	shakier.

	Heather

    Heather,
    
    If you are looking for stocks in Europe don't put all you eggs
    in one basket (UK). Interest rates are likely to come down further
    the the rest of the EEC, just waiting for Germany. On fundamentals
    both french, dutch and german stocks are cheaper that UK, but in
    general prices have reached a level where you have to be VERY
    selective.
    
    				/Soren

    
    Heather,
    	thanks for the daily updates, I appreciate them!
    
    	Simon

	Re: -2

	I don't think I know enough about individual stocks etc., to manage my 
	own fund.......the only company I ever selected to put money into 
	expecting to do well - Digital - didn't return what I was hoping for. 
	Want to buy any shares at $150 :-)
	
	I put into unit trusts, and select types of investment, and I am a 
	long-term investor.

	So currently I have a split around......

	20% totally managed for me, half will be something to do with the UK
	15% Japan markets
	15% UK equities
	10% UK mid-range companies
	15% American blue-chip companies
	15% European emerging markets (some of this is UK, 20% I think)
	5%  Digital
	3%  Building society
	2%  A very small company, not "public" - my "throw away and hope" money
	(Yup, much riskier than Digital)

	My endowment mortgage is coverd by 100% UK equity investment.

	My Digital pension is based on years of service, therefore not 
	dependent on the market........but on base salary......so guess who
	DOESN'T want "variable compensation" ie bonusses not pay increases.
	(mind you, with the pay "increases" of the last few years, there's 
	nothing to choose between them  :-) )

	So my strategy is, slop it around a bit, and hopefully all bases are 
	covered.

	Heather

	Re: .108

	Thanks, I'm pleased it's of interest.

	Heather

>	$1.4777		DM  2.5309	FTSE  3006.1	a record high

	$1.4695		DM  2.5009	FTSE  3008.3

	record high for FTSE friday at 3010, and yesterday went up to 3016,
	before closing at 3008.3.

	Someone mentioned Euro-Disney...tounge-in-cheek...so some info
	Euro-Disney will start to sell wine and beer after much criticisim from
	visitors, it is also cutting it's price of meals, burger+chips+soft 
	drink will now be �4.50 instead of �7.00.........both outragous
	prices!
	With these changes, expected losses are only �200m. Prices fell 50p
	to 685p 

	The Bundesbank has been asking it's ECC partners not to cut interest
	rates....as they were doing the deal to widen the ERM....this request
	has also been called a recommendation to the ERM crisis meeting in 
	Brussels.
	This is thought to be the reason why the expected rate cuts have not
	yet materialised.

	7th monthly consecutive increase in retail sales, this is the strongest
 	growth for 3 years.

	Overseas reciepts of UK financial institutions jumped a net 19.8% last
	year, from 15.7bn to 18.8bn.
	Nearly all sectors achieved improvements in overseas earnings, with
	earnings from portfolio investments fuelling most of the rise.
	Overseas earnings from insurance institutions rose 21.6%, taking
	net overseas receipts back to 1987 levels.

	Heather

>	$1.4695		DM  2.5009	FTSE  3008.3

	$1.4945		DM  2.5227	FTSE  3025.0	a record high


	Still high hopes of interest rate cuts boosting the FTSE to another
	all-time high, plus news of a smaller-than-expected public sector
	borrowing for July - 1.55bn actual vs 1.9bn expected

	Although all economic figures look good, individual company results 
	don't quite match up - a worring difference, which I have no idea
	why it isn't reflected in the FTSE.

	Heather

>	$1.4945		DM  2.5227	FTSE  3025.0	a record high

	$1.5115		DM  2.5401	FTSE  3057.6


	Not much news......is everyone on hols?????

	Heather

    What's an "endowment mortgage"?  Why would you back a mortagage with
    stocks, etc.?
    
    	-John Bishop

>    What's an "endowment mortgage"?  Why would you back a mortagage with
>    stocks, etc.?
 

	Okay...........
	
	Tax relief is given on interest.

	So, you get full tax relief throughout the mortgage term, rather than
	decreasing amounts, as you would for repayment.

	The enowment savings comes with life insurance. If you have a 
	repayment, you have to take out additional life insurance.

	An endowment is tied to equities, and should increase resonably over 
	time.

	Most of them "lock in" the gains in each year, so you won't loose
	the value of the investment.


	.............many pros-and-cons, these are a few.

	60% of mortgages in the UK are covered by endowments.

	Heather

    Tell me if I understand:
    
    You pay a steady amount per month.  All of the payment is classed as
    "interest" for your tax purposes.
    
    The receiver of the money uses part of the money to pay off a
    mortgage (which would normally mean principal payments), but only
    pays the interest (thus not paying it down).  Some money buys a life
    insurance policy (to pay off the mortgage if you die?).  Meanwhile,
    the rest of your payment (the part that would be principal payments)
    goes into an "endowment" account, probably in equities.  It grows
    (tax-sheltered?).
    
    At some point, the endowment is large enough to pay off the loan in
    full, and does so.
    
    It sounds like a UK tax thing.
    
    		-John Bishop

>                                -< Is this it? >-

	very close................
    
>    You pay a steady amount per month.  All of the payment is classed as
>    "interest" for your tax purposes.
   
>    The receiver of the money uses part of the money to pay off a
>    mortgage (which would normally mean principal payments), but only
>    pays the interest (thus not paying it down).  Some money buys a life
>    insurance policy (to pay off the mortgage if you die?).  Meanwhile,
>    the rest of your payment (the part that would be principal payments)
>    goes into an "endowment" account, probably in equities.  It grows
>    (tax-sheltered?).
    
 	You pay the interest to the mortgage company...it's all interest,
	no princial, so tax relief.

	You pay the endowment premuim to the insurance company, this endowment
	also includes life cover, to pay off the mortgage if you die.
	Because the investment has a large life cover, the investment
	grows tax free.
	Mortgage related endowments are normally equities only, I have never
	seen any other type, I don't know if this is law.

>   At some point, the endowment is large enough to pay off the loan in
>    full, and does so.
 
	Yup.

>    It sounds like a UK tax thing, 

	yup, without the tax advantages, it wouldn't be worthwhile.

	Other schemes are coming on the market with similar formats, with
	the lump sum covered by the cash-payout part of a pension (also 
	tax-free growth), or the lump sum coverd by PEPs (Personal Equity Plans)
	also tax-free (growth and income) if kept more than 5 years.
    
    	Reading this file, there seams to be a larger diversity of ways to
	save/invest tax-free in the UK. (usually with a minimum investment
	period).
	I wonder if this is because there is very little you can actually
	claim off actual income taxes.

	Heather

>	$1.5115		DM  2.5401	FTSE  3057.6

	$1.5047		DM  2.5375	FTSE  3042.0

	French cut their 24hour leanding rate to 7.75%

	Most expecting the market to move slightly up, but not much until
	the Bundesbank meeting on Thursday.

	Some people taking profits, some thinking the market is just pausing
	for breath before it surges on.

	Heather

>	Most expecting the market to move slightly up, but not much until
>	the Bundesbank meeting on Thursday.
    
    Is there any reason to expect the Bundesbank to lower rates?  If they
    wouldn't ease back in the days of ERM I, when there was considerable
    external pressure on them, why would they ease now with no such pressure?
    
      John (who's long the DM and so doesn't want lower German rates)

>    Is there any reason to expect the Bundesbank to lower rates?  If they
>    wouldn't ease back in the days of ERM I, when there was considerable
>    external pressure on them, why would they ease now with no such pressure?
 
	They are under pressure, with other countries lowering their rates, 
	the currency is getting too strong, they are in recession.
	A high DM will hit their exports, and encourage imports.

	Also, France keep cutting their 24 hour rate to put pressure on, if the
	French and Germans don't co-operate, their dream (yup still) of a 
	unified currency is in ashes.

	Personally I don't think they will cut now (now just watch them :-) ),
	but I think they will have to cut, because France will have to.	

	$1.4975	   DM 2.5139 (down 2.5)       FTSE  3049.3 (day high 3058.4)

	Bears are out with the obvious failure to keep above DM 2.55, even if 
	the bundesbank cut rates, it doesn't look as if we'll climb back up 
	that far, and sustain it.

	Heather

>	$1.5047		DM  2.5375	FTSE  3042.0

	$1.5068		DM  2.4968	FTSE  3085.1

	FTSE was around 3100 friday-tuesday


	Heather

>	$1.5068		DM  2.4968	FTSE  3085.1

	$1.4983		DM  2.4710	FTSE  3072.6

	It's the end of the 3-week trading period, and people are cashing in on
	the profits.

	Reports that Clintons heatlh measure will introduce a "sin tax" on
	cigarettes and sprits have hit some of the FTSE's heaviest stocks.

	Ciggies; BAT dropped 14p to 450p, and Rothmans dropped 19p to 697p.
	Drink; Allied-Lyons dropped 16p to 610p, grandmet dropped 10p to 445p, 
	       and Guiness dropped 16p to 493p

	Americans are also bailing out of Vodaphone, down 22p to 526p on fears
	from growing compettion from Cable and Wireless.

	Germany announced a 0.5% increase in industriel production, which was 
	not expected.


	Heather

>	$1.4983		DM  2.4710	FTSE  3072.6

	$1.5302		DM  2.4624	FTSE  3059.0

	
	Heather

>	$1.5302		DM  2.4624	FTSE  3059.0

	$1.541		DM  2.4818	FTSE  3035.4      going dooooown

	
	Heather

>	$1.541		DM  2.4818	FTSE  3035.4      going dooooown

	$1.552		DM  2.4820	FTSE  3031.2


	The Bundesbank lowered its key interest rate .5% to 6.25%

	The FTSE picked up the 10 points it lost during the morning, but 
	finished a bit off, as dealers don't expect Kenneth Clarke to
	reduce UK interest rates until the November budget - in time for a
	run-up to Christmas.

	Reports of a flat American bond market also made for caution.
	
	Heather

>	$1.552		DM  2.4820	FTSE  3031.2

	$1.5440		DM  2.4835	FTSE  3028.0


	Dealers in London still nervous about Fridays expiry of the Sept
	FTSE figures

>	$1.5440		DM  2.4835	FTSE  3028.0

	Opps 15th Sept was my last entry!

	$1.5113		DM  2.4643	FTSE  3026.3

	Hopes that interest rates will be cut .5% to 5.5% before the Tory
	party conference next week.

	Heather

>	$1.5113		DM  2.4643	FTSE  3026.3

	$1.5125		DM  2.4392	FTSE  3030.1

	Afew worries about us being hit harder than expected on the VAT
	front in the Nov budget.

	Heather

>	$1.5125		DM  2.4392	FTSE  3030.1

	$1.5317		DM  2.4561      FTSE  3102.2

	Heather

>	$1.5317		DM  2.4561      FTSE  3102.2

	$1.4782		DM  2.5073	FTSE  3164.4

	Major has said don't expect an interest rate cut in the near future.
	(The budget is due at the end of Nov. when most peole expected a cut,
	especially after Germany and France cut a few weeks ago)

	Doesn't seem to have affected the FTSE though.

	It's also intersting how much we've picked up against the Mark, whilst
	loosing against the Dollar.

	Heather

>	$1.4782		DM  2.5073	FTSE  3164.4

	$ 1.4820        DM  2.5120      FTSE  3162.3

	above are last night close figures, ftse fell about 20 points in the 
	first half hour this morning

	broker James Capell uprated its FTSE forcast to 3500 for the first Q
	of Q4

	Heather

>	$ 1.4820        DM  2.5120      FTSE  3162.3

	$ 1.4745	DM  2.4949	FTSE  3098.5

	I'm very pleased the FTSE isn't lower than this.

	Waiting for the November budget - maybe a cut in pension tax relief...

	Heather

>	$ 1.4745	DM  2.4949	FTSE  3098.5

	$ 1.4787	DM  2.5249	FTSE  3125.5


	unexpected drop in unemployment, 49,000 instead of expected 5,000

	average earnings rising at 3% (wheres mine?  :-)  )
	
	inflation under 2%

	hopes of a 1% cut in interest rates in the budget

	Heather

	FTSE dumped 8.3 bn as it dropped 37.4 off at 3070.6

	Rumours around the office today that the interest rate has just been
	cut from 6% to 5.5%. This would be very surprising, as the budget is
	due very shortly, amd I wasn't expecting anything yet.

	Heather

    The rate was indeed cut �% which the financial markets interpret as
    "no further reductions anytime soon", since the � has -gained- vs. the $ 
    as of 1130EST. (Usually, lower rates mean a weaker currency. Not today.)
    
    I think the � is due to break sharply one way or the other in the next
    few weeks. Right now it looks like a stronger � vs. the $.
    
      John (long � futures)

	BTW, US papers also confirm the interest rate cut, and
	are interpreting it that the taxes will be going up.

>	$ 1.4787	DM  2.5249	FTSE  3125.5

	$ 1.4870	DM  2.5428	FTSE  3135.8

	Market thinks budget won't be as bad as expected..........
	forcast  3bn extra taxes
		 253.6bn public spending target
		 38bn deficit 94/95

	announcment that an auction of long-dated gilts will take place after 
	the budget

	...........we shall see.............

	Heather

>	announcment that an auction of long-dated gilts will take place after 
    
    How long is long?  10 years? 20? 30?
    
      John

>	$ 1.4870	DM  2.5428	FTSE  3135.8

	$ 1.4815	DM  2.5411	FTSE  3166.9

	On the radio into work this morning, FTSE had raised to the 3190 range,
	an all-time high.

>	Market thinks budget won't be as bad as expected..........
>	forcast  3bn extra taxes
>		 253.6bn public spending target
>		 38bn deficit 94/95

	deficit forcast for 38bn (right on the money!), and 30 bn the year after
	extra taxes 1.72 bn (way out there!)
	250 bn public spending target. (so less taxes)

	long-dated gilts are 2004 to be auctioned next wednesday. 6.75%
	Prices have rised due to lower than expected borrowing requirements.

	Womens pension age raised to 65.


	Heather

>	$ 1.4815	DM  2.5411	FTSE  3166.9

       I don't know exact figures, $ around 1.49

                                   DM around 2.52
		
				   FTSE around 3260

	Heather

>	$ 1.4815	DM  2.5411	FTSE  3166.9


	$ 1.486		DM  2.5782	FTSE  3408.5


	Heather

>    it the dollar weren't so low I'd be buying European Mutual Funds. I'm
>    from England and live in the States. TYpically the European economic
>    cycle is 2 years behind the US. Europe is about to experience the lower
>    interest rates that have pushed the Dow to record highs. I just wish my
>    buying power were higher! My parents send a brokers letter saying the
>    pound will be down to $1.39 by the end of this year.
    
    Simon, have you shown them the error of their ways??????

	$ 1.486  today

	Heather

>	$1.4960		DM  2.5353	FTSE  2986.4  a record high


>	two months ago predictions of the FTSE being 2800 seem to be lost,
>	with the "collapse" of the ERM. Predictions are for 3100 plus to 3500
>	by the end of the year.

>	Now, a year later with the pound floating, interest rates are down 
>	from 10% to 6%, inflation down to 1.2%, and the economy growing not
>	shrinking. |Inflation expected to be around 3% at end of the year.

>	so, FTSE 2,800 or 3,500 - any bets?

	not too bad a forcast in August........ FTSE 3408.5

	Inflation under 3%

	Heather

Early Nov.....

>	$ 1.4820        DM  2.5120      FTSE  3162.3

>	broker James Capell uprated its FTSE forcast to 3500 for the first Q
>	of Q4

	That was a brave forcast in early Nov......doesn't look too way out now!

	Heather

	Sharper than expected rise in money supply is looked at as evidence 
	that the recovery is picking up pace.

	Analysts feel that apparent bouyancy of the consumer section may
	have dampened hopes of an interest rate cut and pushed forcasts of a
	cut out to Feb or March.
	Long gilt prices fell by 1.25 points.  
	FTSE was down 9.9

	Fears that the US will increase interest rates were balanced by the
	hopes of the Bundesbank to reduce theirs, so leading a cut in other 
	European countries.

	Heather

>	$ 1.486		DM  2.5782	FTSE  3408.5

	$ 1.4880        DM  2.5893      FTSE  3403.0

	Bundesbank did not reduce interest rates, hopes here in the UK are 
	still for a cut to 5%

	Heather

>	$ 1.4880        DM  2.5893      FTSE  3403.0
	
					FTSE  3475.1

	My paper has seemed to stop publishing exchange rates, it only has the
	tourist rates, which are;

	$ 1.46		DM 2.56

	better than expected inflation figure (2%) and weak retail sales pushed
	the prospect of an interest rate closer, ftse jumped 38.1
	the ftse mid 250 jumped 145 to a record 4148.8.
	Turnover was 1.32bn, biggest since black (white?) wednesday when we left
	the ERM in 92

	long gilts added 1.5 quid

	Heather

	FTSE went up to 3590 at one stage.
	started to fall a bit,
	then plunged 100+ on US interest rate increase
	jumped on UK interest rate drop.

	Heather

	$ 1.4702	DM 2.5952	FTSE 3440.2

	Better than expected inflation figures, and the .25% cut look like
	putting more confidence back inthe market.

	Heather

>	$ 1.4702	DM 2.5952	FTSE 3440.2

	$ 1.4785	DM 2.5478	FTSE 3417.7


	recovery looks as if it's slowing down

	industrial output down .5%
	january increas in retail sales should have been .8%, was .6%
	unemployment expected to fall 25,000, it rose 15,000
	inflation is rising less than expected

	A very unsusal large spread of views amongst economists at the moment,
	probably due to the tax raises spead over such long periods.

	Heather

>	$ 1.4785	DM 2.5478	FTSE 3417.7

	$ 1.4802        DM 2.56000      FTSE 3267.5

	We live in interesting times!


	Wall streets drop, and the US previuos cut in interest rates put 
	jitters in our market. The FTSE dropped 74.4 yesterday, biggest fall 
	since October 92(ERM withdrawal), and first time under 3,300 since 
	mid Dec 93.

	Gilts fell 3 quid at the longer end of the market.

	Many Mortgage lenders scrapped their 5-year fixed interest rate
	mortgages, others increased them by .64%


	Heather

>	We live in interesting times!


	Well, this was my comment, and it holds true.

	I will be leaving on 29th March, and don't know if I'll get back
	into notes conferences before then.

	The package will give me the breathing space I need to move into a new
	carreer, which I plan to be in the finance sector (mortgages, 
	endowments, PEP's etc.!)

	I wish you all good luck,
	
	Heather

	Well, 

	FTSE fell under 3200, closing at 3198.0 with fears of US inteest rate
	rise.
	It's only the second time it's stuck below 3200 since November.

	The European trade deficit outside Europe narrowed from 788m to 
	672m, even th' analysts expected a 800m deficit, the news had no effect
 	on the markets.

	$1.4840    DM 2.5198

	Pharmaceuticals, water, and insurance compnies are tagged as good 
	bets at the moment.


	Oil's looking cheap. $14 a barrel could go down to 12, or even single 
	figures if Iraq is not subject to a UN embargo (it may have been
	there already but for the savge cold snap in the US and a slump in
	Russian imports.

	Pah, so much for the doom and gloom of the 70/early 80's, which
	forcast alarmingly high prices and oil shortages - all those policies
	around tough insulation regulations for new homes(expensive houses), 
	and encouragement of wind-power(desicration of many beauty spots)...
	.........
	
	I'd like to be a fly on the wall at Fridays OPEC meeting........

	Heather
	

> Pah, so much for the doom and gloom of the 70/early 80's, which
> forcast alarmingly high prices and oil shortages - all those policies
    >	around tough insulation regulations for new homes(expensive houses), 
    >  and encouragement of wind-power(desicration of many beauty spots)...
    
    Could it be that the increased awareness of energy costs and
    conservation *resulted* in the decrease of oil prices? Seems likely to
    me. Plus, I think the increased cost of a home with decent insulation
    is more than offset by the decrease in annual energy costs. My parents
    have certainly observed this: some walls of their vintage 1968 house
    had *no* insulation, and where it was, it was pretty thin.
    
    Am surprised to hear such a negative review of wind power. We in the US
    are not very familiar with it, but to me it has always seemed the
    ultimate eco-friendly engergy source (along with solar or geothermal
    which are probably much more expensive). Is your attitude wrt wind
    power common in Europe?
    
    ANyway, the oil *will* run out one day, be it in thirty years or
    seventy, so I applaud efforts at conservation and developing new energy
    sources.

    
    
    I agree that using less oil is good because it will run out some day.
    However, I wonder about the notion that energy efficiency practices put
    into place since the two oil shocks has reduced demand for oil and that
    this in turn has led to a decrease in the price of oil.  Most of the
    things I have read suggest that world-wide oil consumption has been
    increasing steadily.
    
    Rather than look at the demand side, the reasons for oil price
    decreases are to be found on the supply side.   The OPEC cartel's
    price fixing was stopped when significant amounts of oil came to be
    produced outside OPEC, principally, North Sea oil from Norway and the
    UK, but also from other non-OPEC producers.  Also, friction between
    OPEC members  led to a reduced ability to fix the price of oil.
    
    
    Kaizad

>    Could it be that the increased awareness of energy costs and
>    conservation *resulted* in the decrease of oil prices? 

	Nope, it's because of overprodution of countreis who decided not to
	stick with OPEC's quotas


>   Plus, I think the increased cost of a home with decent insulation
>    is more than offset by the decrease in annual energy costs. My parents
>    have certainly observed this: some walls of their vintage 1968 house
>    had *no* insulation, and where it was, it was pretty thin.
 
	Don't forget, in the UK it doesn't get too hot or too cold, so 6" loft
	insulation, as opposed to the previous 4" insulation could take a long
	time to pay back.

	To the best of my memory, the only things that are cost-benefit over 5 
	years are water heating tank insulation, 4" rather than no loft 
	insulation, draft-strips on doors, and foil behind radiators on 
	outside walls.
	Something like doulble glazing has a 30ish year pay-back.
   
>    Am surprised to hear such a negative review of wind power. We in the US
>    are not very familiar with it, but to me it has always seemed the
>    ultimate eco-friendly engergy source (along with solar or geothermal
>    which are probably much more expensive). Is your attitude wrt wind
>    power common in Europe?
 
	The attitude is that we are a very small country with a large 
	population.
	The few places that could take a wind-farm would be on the top of a 
	hill, probably in the best beauty spot, which can be seen for miles.
	    
	Heather

>    price fixing was stopped when significant amounts of oil came to be
>    produced outside OPEC, principally, North Sea oil from Norway and the
>    UK, but also from other non-OPEC producers.


	Last time I looked, the UK were part of OPEC.

	Heather

	$1.489	DM 2.5252	FTSE 3155.3

	FTSE had dropped 10 points on opening this morning.

	Good news for my PEP investment, which has it's shares allocated today.

	Heather

>	$1.489	DM 2.5252	FTSE 3155.3

	$1.4933 DM 2.4975       FTSE 3121.7


	FTSE is almost 12pc below it's all-time peak only a month ago.

	Oil shares fell ahead of this weekends OPEC meeting - market looks
	impatient over production costs.

	Heather

>       FTSE 3121.7

	FTSE 3129.5

	The city is hoping the 2.5bn floating-rate gilt auction goes well 
	tomorrow. They closed 1.25 pounds up yesterday.

	Still remaining confident that UK interest rates will ease, possibly
	in April when there may be more evidence that inflation is in check.

	
	That's it folkes,


	I wish you all well,	

	Heather